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| RISK ANALYSIS - GENERAL |
Are you confident of the risks you face in
your business and strategic planning?
To ignore the effects of uncertainty means to potentially expose your organization to unnecessary risk and potential failure. Your knowledge
and your toolset will make the difference between whether
your work succeeds or fails.
Whether you're creating a business case, determining pricing sensitivity, calulating VaR or NPV, estimating future costs, forecasting demand in competitive markets, or assessing
the financial risks in new ventures and proposals, you need to account for the known uncertainty in your models.
No matter what risks you face, Crystal Ball software
can help you find the specific solution for your needs.
Crystal Ball is a Microsoft® Excel®-based suite of analytical tools that includes Monte Carlo simulation, optimization, and forecasting. With little effort, you can apply these advanced analytical techniques to your new or existing spreadsheets to create more accurate cost and financial predictions and better informed business decisions. |
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 Crystal Ball software is for anyone who uses
spreadsheets and needs to forecast uncertain results.
Financial analysts, marketers, product managers, and engineers
all rely on Crystal Ball to improve the quality of their
decision making processes (see our list of common applications
below).
Key
risk analysis features include sensitivity
analysis, correlation, historical data fitting and optimization. The sensitivity
analysis helps you to understand which of the uncertain input variables
are most critical and drive the uncertainty of your cost
model.
Correlation lets you link uncertain inputs and account
for their positive or negative dependencies. If historical data
does exist, the data fitting feature will compare the data to
the distribution algorithms and calculate the best possible fit
and parameters for your data. Optimization allows you to account for uncertainty and risk in simulations but still select the best possible settings (e.g., staffing levels, investment amounts, product prices) to achieve success.
With Crystal Ball, you can:
- Replace min/max estimates with more accurate range of all possible outcomes
- Reduce the time required to produce estimates,
- Eliminate multiple manual “what if” estimates,
- Mitigate your cost and schedule risks,
- Gain immediate insight to the driving inputs and output variations,
- Make knowledgeable decisions on where to focus resources, and
- Provide decision-makers with factual data that shows the risk associated with each choice.
LEARN MORE ABOUT CRYSTAL BALL FOR RISK ANALYSIS APPLICATIONS
This page offers links to a growing number of resources, including recorded Web seminars, articles, white papers, case studies, and example models. Additionally, you can view a list of common uses and examples reported directly from customers using Crystal Ball. You can also download a free trial version of Crystal Ball to see how it can help improve your business forecasts and decisions!
"Doing a business case analysis
without Crystal Ball is like driving with your lights
off at night."
-- Chad Lander, Senior Financial Analyst, Sprint |
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RECORDED WEB SEMINARS
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NPV and the Impact of Risk
Learn how to integrate NPV with defined accounting measures like ARR and ROI.
Presented by John Casticas, Managing Partner, John Nicholas & Company
Recorded April 10, 2007
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No recording
 Download files
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Why Can’t You Just Give Me the Number?
An executive's guide to using probabilistic thinking to manage risk and to make better decisions
Discusses the pros and cons of using different statistics as "the number," why you should be risk-neutral at the project level, and traps to avoid when working at the portfolio level.
Presented by Pat Leach of Decision Strategies Inc.
Recorded November 14, 2006
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View recording
Download files
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Como resolver problemas complexos nas áreas de engenharia, finanças, marketing e planejamento por meio do Crystal Ball
Neste seminário mostraremos como solucionar alguns problemas complexos utilizando-se planilhas eletrônicas juntamente com simulação de Monte Carlo. A simulação é realizada por meio das facilidades do Crystal Ball®. Estes exemplos são associados a quatro áreas distintas: mercado financeiro, engenharia, orçamento de capital e marketing.
Recorded August 29, 2007
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View recording
No downloads |
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Workshop de Manejo de Optimizador
Oscar Bravo Mendoza presentará Aplicación práctica de optimizador en aplicaciones de portafolio de oportunidades y la selección de el número óptimo de pozos en un campo petrolero.
Presented by Oscar Bravo Mendoza, funcionario de la Dirección de Planeación y Riesgos de Ecopetrol S.A
Recorded April 18, 2007
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View recording
No downloads |
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Providing What Decision Makers Need - Insights
Illustrate with case studies how to create decision frameworks that engage decision makers in a dialog that actively uses the insights that stochastic analysis tools can provide.
Presented by Dr. Gerald A. Bush, Ph.D., founder and chairman of Decision Strategies.
Recorded October 11, 2006
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View recording
Download files |
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How To Lie With Statistical Graphics
Examines the impact of choices in filtering, aggregation, and design on graphical integrity. Examples include applications to Crystal Ball simulations and to current events.
Presented by Andy Sleeper, President, Successful Statistics LLC
Recorded September 22, 2006
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View recording
Download files |
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WHITE PAPERS & ARTICLES
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CASE STUDIES
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> Assessing Risks of
Commercial Loans
SunTrust "Banks" On Crystal Ball For Assessing
The Risk Of Commercial Loans |
Download |
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> Financial Services
Consulting
Banker's Trust uses Crystal Ball in Developing Award-winning
Risk Management Group |
Download |
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> Maximizing Shareholder
Value
Deloitte & Touche Helps Maximize Clients' Shareholder
Value with Crystal Ball |
Download |
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> Negotiating Financial
Settlements
Pacific Bell Calls Upon Crystal Ball To Help Negotiate Financial
Settlement |
Download |
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> Portfolio Optimization
For ProVise Management Group, Crystal Ball is the Key to
Optimizing Portfolio Profit |
Download |
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> Simulation in Financial Risk Management
Rolf van der Meer of Deutsche Bank AG presents a case study about Berliner Maschinen AG. (click here to download the accompanying model) |
Download |
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EXAMPLE MODELS
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Hotel Design and Pricing
Detail: A downtown hotel is considering a major remodeling
effort and needs to determine the best combination of rates and
room sizes to maximize revenues. Uses a percentile requirement and
shows the risk of using a deterministic solution instead of a probabilistic
one. Includes optimizations setting file. |
Download
For:
Crystal Ball & OptQuest
Level:
Simple |
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Product Mix
Detail: Classic optimization example. The problem is to
determine how many pounds of each food product to produce to maximize
gross profit without running out of meat ingredients or casing during
the manufacturing run. Includes optimizations setting file. |
Download
For:
Crystal Ball & OptQuest
Level:
Simple |
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COMMON USES & EXAMPLES
The following examples were provided by our customers and represent
only some of the potential corporate finance applications for
Crystal Ball.
- Analysis of transactions risks and opportunities
- Budgetary cost projections
- Capital budgeting analysis
- Capital budgeting for replacing aircraft
- Cost estimate projections
- DCF analysis
- Demand and yield forecasting
- Discounted cash flow analysis
- Estimates for leasing and cash flow analysis
- Evaluating investment options
- Evaluation of capital investment proposals, acquisitions, and
new business startups
- Exploration of equity partnerships and the involved risk and
exposure
- Feasibility studies on capital investments
- Financial forecasting and cost analysis
- Forecasting, risk analysis, supply chain management, real options analysis
- Interest sensitivity analysis
- Lease vs. buy analysis
- Modeling sensitivity analysis for bid proposals
- NPV analysis
- Option and asset pricing
- Optimization of revenue
- Project and business analysis
- Real options analysis
- Risk analysis for strategic decisions
- Risk models for retirement plans
- Simulation of valuation scenarios
- Stock performance projections
- Structured finance model building and confidence testing
- VaR calculations for projects
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TEXTBOOKS
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