Crystal Ball in Textbooks

The Art of Modeling with Spreadsheets: Management Science, Spreadsheet Engineering, and Modeling Craft
By Stephen G. Powell, Dartmouth College, and Kenneth R. Baker, Dartmouth College

Description:

Successful business modeling is much more than a technical discipline; it's an art. And as in most professional disciplines, you can tell the experts apart from the novices by the creativity that they bring to the craft. Now, with The Art of Modeling with Spreadsheets, you can master the technical knowledge as well as those essential craft skills needed to develop real expertise in business modeling.

You'll learn:

Effective methods for designing, building, and testing models, and for performing model-based analyses,
Non-technical craft skills that expert modelers commonly employ, such as abstracting a situation, debugging a model, and translating model results into managerial insights, and
Standard statistical and management science techniques used in business today, such as data analysis, simulation, and optimization.

The Art of Modeling with Spreadsheets features balanced and streamlined coverage of spreadsheet engineering, management science techniques, and modeling craft. The textbook includes a CD-ROM with the example spreadsheets referred to in the text, as well as three software tools of special importance to business analysts: Premium Solver, Crystal Ball, and Sensitivity Toolkit (featuring four sensitivity tools). A unique collection of cases and exercises reinforces the more open-ended skills covered by the text.

This textbook features an entire 90-page chapter on Crystal Ball, covering topics that include selecting uncertain parameters and appropriate probability distributions, ensuring output precision, interpreting simulation outcomes, and optimization using OptQuest. Chapter appendices provide details and advice on Crystal Ball settings and additional Crystal Ball features. Examples discuss valuation, option pricing, cash budgeting, sales forecasting and more. The authors also include a macro-driven Toolkit that uses Crystal Ball for their own advanced sensitivity analysis.

Details:

Published August 2003 by John Wiley & Sons, Copyright 2004, 399 pp., Hardcover,
ISBN 0471209376; Includes Student Edition (140-day limit) of Crystal Ball 2000 Professional.

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Introduction to Simulation and Risk Analysis, 2/e
By James R. Evans, University of Cincinnati, and David L. Olson, Texas A&M University

Description:

This text provides an introduction to the concepts, methodologies, and applications of simulation in business. Easy-to-use and apply, it uses spreadsheets as the principal means to illustrate simulation models and computational issues -- providing students with a solid foundation for learning to use the more advanced commercially available simulation software.

The value of simulation is demonstrated through the use of real applications throughout. The text provides students with considerable hands-on experiences and allows students to address both risk analysis and systems simulation approaches in a common framework. It also presents a variety of applications in operations management, finance, and marketing -- showing the variety of uses of Monte-Carlo simulation as well as the flexibility of Crystal Ball in addressing risk.

July 2001: Prentice Hall has just released the second edition of this popular risk analysis textbook. As before, this book comes with a version of Crystal Ball, example models, and simulation case studies. This revised edition includes an expanded presentation of basic Excel skills, more hands-on exercises, new examples and illustrations of simulation models, and a new chapter on simulation in forecasting and optimization.

Details:

Second Edition: Published July, 2001 by Prentice Hall Business Publishing, 432 pp., Cloth, ISBN 0-13-0329282; Student Edition (140-day limit) of Crystal Ball included.

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Spreadsheet Modeling and Decision Analysis, 5/e
By Cliff Ragsdale, Georgia Southern University

Description:

Cliff Ragsdale is an innovator of the spreadsheet teaching revolution and is highly regarded in the field of management science. The 5th edition retains the elements and philosophy that has made its past editions so successful.

New topics have been added as well as examples that are relevant to decision making in today's business world. This new edition of Spreadsheet Modeling and Decision Analysis provides succinct instruction in the most commonly used management science techniques and shows how these tools can be implemented using the most current version of Microsoft Excel for Windows. This text also focuses on developing both algebraic and spreadsheet modeling skills.

This 5th edition includes more coverage on decision makng practices, new time series analysis examples, more case studies, new techniques for project management networks, and more. Crystal Ball and OptQuest are covered in an 80+ page chapter dedicated to simulation, and CB Predictor is applied in the Time Series forecasting chapter.

Details:

Published 2006 by South-Western College Publishing, Copyright 2007, Cloth Bound with Disk, ISBN: 0324183992; Textbook (140-day) version of Crystal Ball Professional Edition (version 7.2.1) is packaged with the textbook.

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La modélisation du risque: Simulations de Monte Carlo
By Hervé Thiriez

Description: Le risque est aujourd’hui reconnu comme un facteur clé dans l’entreprise, mais cette prise de conscience est assez récente. En conséquence, la façon d’appréhender le risque dans le monde de l’entreprise est rarement bien organisée et se limite fréquemment à des nomenclatures de risques ou à des analyses de scénarios reposant le plus souvent sur trois éléments: hypothèse basse, hypothèse probable et hypothèse haute.

Dans sa première partie, cet ouvrage présente les principales méthodes de modélisation du risque : on découvre ainsi tour à tour les principes de base de l’analyse de scénarios, de la théorie des jeux, de la théorie de la décision et de la simulation de Monte Carlo (simulation probabiliste). Dans la seconde partie, l’auteur détaille la construction de divers modèles de simulation avec Excel, et montre comment on peut créer, grâce à un add-in très performant, des modèles spécifiques appliqués à différentes situations de gestion.

Chacun de ces cas fait l’objet d’un chapitre spécifique et fournit l’occasion de voir comment passer d’un modèle de simulation conceptuel à sa mise en œuvre pratique dans Excel pour la création de modèles professionnels. Le lecteur y trouvera d’ailleurs de nombreux conseil de modélisation avec Excel.

Dans la conclusion, l’auteur présente une dizaine d’exemples complexes de simulations probabilistes développées dans le cadre de son activité de conseil.

Details:

Published April 14, 2004 by Economica. ISBN : 2717848223. Does not include a version of Crystal Ball.

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Managing Bank Risk: An Introduction to Broad-Base Credit Engineering
By Morton Glantz

Description:

Featuring new credit engineering tools, Managing Bank Risk combines innovative analytic methods with traditional credit management processes. Professor Glantz provides print and electronic risk-measuring tools that ensure credits are made in accordance with bank policy and regulatory requirements, giving bankers with the data necessary for judging asset quality and value.

The book's two sections, "New Approaches to Fundamental Analysis" and "Credit Administration," show readers ways to assimilate new tools, such as credit derivatives, cash flow computer modeling, distress prediction and workout, interactive risk rating models, and probabilistic default screening, with well-known controls. By following the guidelines of the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision, Managing Bank Risk offers useful models, programs, and documents essential for creating a sound credit risk environment, credit granting processes, and appropriate administrative and monitoring controls.

This book includes features such as:

Chapter-concluding questions
Case studies illustrating all major tools
EDF(tm) Credit Measure provided by KMV, the world's leading provide of market-based quantitative credit risk products
Library of internet links directs readers to information on evolving credit disciplines, such as portfolio management, credit derivatives, risk rating, and financial analysis
CD-ROM containing interactive models and a useful document collection

This textbook contains several sections that specifically use and discuss the tools of Crystal Ball Professional Edition. Crystal Ball is featured in the Projections and Risk Assessment and Pricing Models chapters. CB Predictor and OptQuest are mentioned in the Projections and Risk Assessment chapter. The book also includes an appendix on probability distribution definitions and a banker's primer on real options.

Details:

Published 2002 by Academic Press, Copyright 1999, 667 pages, ISBN: 0122857852. Includes quick demos (demonstration slideshows) of Crystal Ball 2000 Professional Edition and a working demo of Real Options Analysis Toolkit on CD.

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Development of Sustainable Bioprocesses: Modeling and Assessment
By Elmar Heinze, Arno Biwer, and Charles Cooney

Description:

Bioprocess technology involves the combination of living matter (whole organism or enzymes) with nutrients under laboratory conditions to make a desired product within the pharmaceutical, food, cosmetics, biotechnology, fine chemicals and bulk chemicals sectors. Industry is under increasing pressure to develop new processes that are both environmentally friendly and cost-effective, and this can be achieved by taking a fresh look at process development; namely by combining modern process modeling techniques with sustainability assessment methods.

Development of Sustainable Bioprocesses: Modeling and Assessment describes methodologies and supporting case studies for the evolution and implementation of sustainable bioprocesses. Practical and industry-focused, the book begins with an introduction to the bioprocess industries and development procedures. Bioprocesses and bioproducts are then introduced, together with a description of the unit operations involved. Modeling procedures (such as simulation), a key feature of the book, are covered in chapter 3 prior to an overview of the key sustainability assessment methods in use (environmental, economic and societal). The second part of the book is devoted to case studies.

This book provides a framework for the development of sustainable bioprocesses. It includes methods for modeling and assessing both the economic and environmental aspects of biotechnological processes and illustrates their application in a series of case studies covering a broad range of products.

The book:

provides, in four chapters, an introduction to bioproducts and bioprocesses and the unit operations involved in manufacturing, as well as bioprocess modeling in combination with economic and environmental assessment methods;
cuts across multiple process industries, including pharmaceutical, biochemicals, chemicals and food production;
addresses risk and uncertainty analysis which are particularly important in early process and product development; and
presents a unique set of case examples from various parts of biotechnology that improve the understanding of this technology and provide a starting point for developing a specific model.

An accompanying CD-ROM includes an evaluation version of Crystal Ball Professional software, a demo version of SuperPro Designer software (used in process engineering), and models of all featured case studies, Microsoft Excel sheets of assessment methods, Monte Carlo simulations and exercises.

Details:

Published by Wiley, Copyright 2007, Hardbound, 316 pp.
ISBN: 0470015594. Includes an evaluation version of Crystal Ball Professional Edition.

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Analyzing and Managing Risky Investments
By John M. Campbell, Jr., John M. Campbell, Sr., Robert A. Campbell

Description:

The authors of Analyzing and Managing Risky Investments focus on how changes in the business environment impact decision making, and
how professionals today can better respond to a more fluid and less certain business environment. This textbook bridges the gap between
the traditional valuation process and more modern approaches that address problems such as limited information and inexact equations. The
authors show how analysts can successfully balance time and
knowledge constraints with the demand for good investment decisions.

Analyzing and Managing Risky Investments covers methodologies for improved investment decision making, with an emphasis on understanding variability and risk. The textbook works well as both a primer for those new to formal risk analysis, and as a reference for those who have a background in financial or project management techniques. Topics include analyzing investment opportunities, estimating the flow of money, measuring variability, and assessing and valuing risk. Each chapter includes a number of examples and case studies, many of which are related to the oil and gas industry. The authors also feature Crystal Ball for cost estimation and risk assessment and OptQuest for portfolio
optimization.

Details:

Published April 2001 by Pennwell, Cloth Bound, ISBN 0-9709607-0-07, 485 pp. Does not include a version of Crystal Ball.

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Business Forecasting, 8e
By John E. Hanke and Dean W. Wichern

Description:

This text presents basic statistical techniques that are useful for preparing individual business forecasts and long-range plans. Written in a simple, straightforward style and making extensive use of practical business examples, the new edition includes numerous new problems, examples, data sets, and cases providing students with the necessary link between theoretical concepts and their real-world applications.

Major improvements to this edition include: extensive discussions of the
managerial aspects of forecasting, forecasting software that includes Microsoft® Excel, MINITAB®, and CB Predictor, case studies in every chapter, and real data sets.

Details:

Published April 2005 by Pearson Prentice Hall, Cloth Bound, ISBN 0131412906, 535 pp. Includes a Student Edition of CB Predictor.

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The Business Case Guide, 2/e
By Marty Schmidt, MBA, Ph.D.

Description:

The latest edition of the Business Case Guide provides clear, concrete answers to questions concerning the development and benefits of business cases. Written with the depth and detail that finance and planning professionals require, the Guide is also rich in practical help and examples for those with little or no background in those areas. Illustrations and step-by-step guidance are designed to get you started immediately and finished as quickly as possible.

This new edition is an e-book that clarifies important differences between cases for businesses, non-profit organizations, educational institutions, and government and military organizations. The book covers the definition and structure of a business case, methods and assumptions, packaging and presentation of results (which in include simulation and sensitivity analysis using Crystal Ball), and resources.

Solution Matrix Ltd. is a leading authority on business case design and development. Now, we have just rewritten the business case book. The Guide is a single resource for the same tools, methods, and expertise that the company delivers to companies and organizations like IBM, Compaq, Ericsson, SAP, Microsoft, NASA, NSA, US Army, Royal bank of Canada, BP Amoco, and others.

> Learn more about the author from his Consultants' Corner listing

Details:

Published by Solution Matrix Ltd., 2002, electronic file, ISBN 1-929500-01-7, 266 pp. Does not include a version of Crystal Ball.

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Essentials of Business Statistics, 1/e
By James R. Evans

Description:

This text covers the basic concepts of business statistics and data analysis integrated in a contemporary spreadsheet environment. The author emphasizes practical applications and business decision-making. Highlights include a practical, nonmathematical approach, a comprehensive database to help with hands-on exercises, and an emphasis on the use of spreadsheets for data analysis and decision modeling.

This textbook was designed for the one-semester (or briefer) course in business statistics for MBA or Executive MBA programs. One entire chapter is dedicated to risk analysis and Monte Carlo simulation with Crystal Ball.

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Financial Management: A Practical Guide to Value Creation
By Patrick C. Gregory, MS, MBA, CRM, CWM, MFP

Description:

Understanding financial management is critical in today’s global marketplace. Financial Management: A Practical Guide to Value Creation is designed for general managers, senior functional managers, and business students interested in the practice of financial management. The book introduces innovative techniques in a practical, intuitive way, but assumes no prior knowledge beyond a rudimentary understanding of financial statements.

Unlike most texts, which are conceptual in nature, Financial Management: A Practical Guide to Value Creation ties concepts to reality. In fact, the concepts covered in each chapter are applied to an actual company, which reinforces the reader’s understanding of the subject matter. Practical examples are also integrated to demonstrate how the financial tools and techniques can be used to improve the decision making process.

Financial Management: A Practical Guide to Value Creation underscores the principles of financial management, which are applicable to all companies. The book is organized into five sections. Part I begins with an articulation of the two basic questions that financial managers face: (1) What investments should the company make and (2) how should these capital expenditures be financed? Part II reviews the techniques managers use to assess a company’s current "financial health," plan its future development, and make decisions designed to improve its probability for success. Part III is dedicated to time value of money, and Part IV demonstrates how managers make investment decisions (i.e., capital budgeting) that maximize the firm’s value. Part V provides the measures of risk and return used by a company’s various capital providers to evaluate firm performance.

Key Features

Focused Content. The text emphasizes the concepts of financial management most relevant to sound decision making. Each topic is applied to an actual company, which reinforces the reader’s understanding of the subject matter.
Experiential Exercises. Real world exercises provide insight into the realities of financial management and guide the reader through the decision making process.
Cutting-edge Software. The accompanying CD-ROM contains a trial version of Crystal Ball Pro, a popular software used in financial management, as well as Excel templates needed to complete the end-of-chapter problems and cases.

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Financial Modeling with Crystal Ball and Excel
By John M. Charnes

Description:

We are extremely pleased to announce the publication of Financial Modeling with Crystal Ball and Excel, the first book entirely dedicated to using Crystal Ball software for spreadsheet-based problems involving financial risk. This textbook is intended for analysts who wish to construct stochastic Microsoft® Excel financial models and anyone else interested in learning how to use Crystal Ball software.

The first six chapters of this book demonstrate how to use Crystal Ball. The remainder of the text provides examples of using Crystal Ball models to help solve problems in corporate finance, investments, and financial risk management. The appendices provide technical details about what goes on under the hood of the Crystal Ball engine. A 180-day Textbook Version of Crystal Ball is included with this textbook.

Dr. John Charnes, PhD, MBA, is Professor, Scupin Faculty Fellow, and former director of the finance, economics, and decision sciences area in the University of Kansas School of Business. His specialty is the application of computer simulation and statistical methods for identifying and solving business problems, and his most current research involves using simulation for option pricing and hedging with derivatives to comply with Financial Accounting Standard (FAS) 133.He has performed research, consulting, and executive education for more than fifty corporations and other organizations.

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Quantitative Business Modeling, 1/e
By Jack R. Meredith, Scott M. Shafer, Efraim Turban

Description: The process of modeling is highly relevant to all business disciplines and is a critical skill for all professionals. Rather than giving instruction in models and solving problems, Quantitative Business Modeling focuses on the process of modeling and the use of models in analyzing various managerial situations.

The main focus of this text is on quantitative business modeling. It addresses topics such as what modeling entails, how to do it and why it is useful, how to recognize opportunities, how to select an appropriate model, how to collect date and formulate useful models, how to communicate and implement the results, and more. Every chapter starts with an opportunity or problem that is specific to the chapters' topics and ends with a detailed modeling example that works through the entire process described in the chapter.

The emphasis of this text is on the integration and development of modeling skills, including problem recognition, data collection, model formulation, analysis, and communicating and implementing the results. A 140-day textbook version of Crystal Ball 2000 Professional Edition is included, and an entire chapter is devoted to Monte Carlo simulation and application. An appendix to the chapter discusses how Crystal Ball can be applied using an example of an IT management decision.

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Quantitative Methods for Business, 8/e
By David R. Anderson, Dennis J. Sweeney, Thomas A. Williams

Description: This revision of the classic Quantitative Methods for Business provides students with a conceptual understanding of the role that quantitative methods play in the decision-making process. This text describes the many quantitative methods that have been developed over the years, explains how they work, and shows how the decision-maker can apply and interpret data.

Written with the non-mathematician in mind, this text is applications-oriented. Its Problem-Scenario Approach motivates and helps students understand and apply mathematical concepts and techniques. In addition, the managerial orientation motivates students by using examples that illustrate situations in which quantitative methods are useful in decision making.

For the first time, Crystal Ball is featured in Chapter 16, which covers the use and advantages of simulation for business analysis. Topics in this chapter include manufacturing simulation, inventory simulation, waiting line simulation, and related issues. A trial version of Crystal Ball is included.

Southwestern College Publishing provides an excellent walkthrough of the book, including an overview, table of contents, features list, and description of the authors.

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Scientific Financial Management : Advances in Financial Intelligence Capabilities for Corporate Valuation and Risk Assessment
By Morton Glantz, with a Special Contribution by Thomas L. Doorley III

Description:

A huge gap exists between the theory of finance and the use of scientific financial management applications - a gap that threatens to widen despite recent advances in financial techniques and raw computing power.

This book aims to close that gap for CFOs, treasurers, and other corporate financial executives. In doing so, it teaches you how to deploy the complete array of advanced, technology-actualized financial tools available today. These sophisticated methods are the new tools of choice to crystallize value drivers, explain optimal capital allocation strategies, develop hedging strategies, and otherwise deliver the goods to your CEO and the board of directors.

SCIENTIFIC FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT is a complete tool kit to deploying advanced, state-of-the-art financial techniques for defining a firm's strategic direction...explaining optimal capital allocation strategies...and making a smart defense of the shareholder value number.

Readers will learn how to use the same scientific methods and models successfully employed by Fortune 100 companies, including: * Option analysis * Visual financial models * Monte Carlo analysis * Cash-flow analysis * Uncertainty forecast models * Linear programming * Decision trees and multiattribute utility analysis * Interactive credit scoring model--and other tools that close the gap between the theory of finance and the utilization of scientific applications. Includes a chapter dedicated to Real Options.

To reinforce these techniques, the accompanying CD-ROM provides a collection of financial models and related software, author Morton Glantz's interactive corporate and divisional risk-rating systems, and utilities and links from vendors who specialize in various valuation disciplines (including Decisioneering and Crystal Ball).

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Stochastic Modeling: The New Way to Predict Your Financial Future
By Glenn G. Kautt

Description:

Written for a general audience, Stochastic Modeling: The New Way to Predict Your Financial Future provides a beginner-level overview of the latest technologies used by financial planners for retirement planning. Glenn Kautt, a respected and recognized financial planner, created this book to help professional planners and the public to understand forecasting techniques such as Monte Carlo simulation.

NOTE: This book does not delve into technical details of simulation and is meant as a general introduction to the idea of simulation rather than a how-to book.

The book addresses these five important questions:

What's going on today in the world of predicting or forecasting the future financial situation for an individual or couple?
What new forecasting models have been developed for the financial planning of my future?
What's the value in these new forecasting models?
Can the improve my future?
Is there anything to look for or ask about when working with someone using these new models?

Based on several years' worth of articles and lectures by the author, this short book is an excellent introduction to the pros and cons of Monte Carlo simulation for financial planning. While the book does not specifically mention how to use Crystal Ball (Decisioneering is cited in the Notes to the Text section), most screen shots were modified from forecast charts, and the general insights can be applied to financial models that use Crystal Ball.

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Valuation and Pricing of Technology-Based Intellectual Property
By Richard Razgaitis

Description:

Companies in the business of developing cutting-edge technologies face the daunting task of having to assign value to their pre-commercial, early-stage products years before they may ever be presented for sale or license. Such technologies may be the next big thing, or they may prove to be nothing but a punchless dud. Consequently, R&D organizations answer three essential questions: 1) how to value the technology for marketing and/or licensing; 2) whether to produce a market-ready product, based on risk-analysis; and 3) how to price the product so that it is acceptable to both the seller and the buyer or licensee.

Richard Razgaitis provides invaluable guidance on answering these questions and more in Valuation and Pricing of Technology-Based Intellectual Property. A completely revised, updated, and expanded edition of Razgaitis's Early-Stage Technologies: Valuation and Pricing, this new volume presents a comprehensive approach to determining the future of new technologies based on technology rights, risk assignment, the art of deal-making, and deal economics.

This textbook is a must-read for licensing executives, corporate R&D managers, and intellectual property consultants and attorneys. As with its predecessor, the core of the book is comprised of thoughtful examinations of six valuation methods:

Industrial Standards
Rating and Ranking
The Rules of Thumb Method
The Discounted Cash Flow Method
Advanced Methods
Auctions

Each includes all-new material, such as discussions of paradigm licensing, stacking, stage development, rate-of-return available for different risks, and the use of real options. Sample spreadsheets, valuation analysis charts, and case studies based on the author's real-world experience demonstrate how these valuation methods apply in specific instances. Razgaitis also provides his readers with ample background in core concepts such as sources of value, methods of valuation, equity realizations, and negotiation strategies.

Crystal Ball and Monte Carlo simulation are discussed in-depth in the chapter covering advanced valuation methods. The author has used screen shots of Crystal Ball assumptions and forecasts to illustrate a valuation example.

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Riesgos en Proyectos de Inversión: Cómo enfrentarlos
By Eduardo Herrera Lana

Descripción:

El libro escrito con símbolos y metáforas, aborda problemas de concepción, modelación, análisis y administración de riesgos en proyectos de inversión

Su autor sostiene “"Intencionalmente he intentado escribir un libro con el menor rigor posible, es decir, evitando las definiciones, convencionalismos y formalidades de un texto académico, procurando describir aquello que subyace en el proceso de aprendizaje, las vivencias y las historias que creamos en nuestro caminar.

Un libro con historias. Un rompecabezas que cada uno armará a su modo. Distintos enfoques, así como distintos modos de enfrentar los retos, de asumir riesgos."

Description:

The book written by symbols and metaphors, deals with problems related to conception, modeling, analysis and management of risks in investment projects.

The writer says “I have tried to write a book with less rigor, that is, far away from the definitions, conventions, and formalisms of an academic book. The mean idea was to showcase the stories underlying in the learning process. This is a book with tales. A puzzle that someone will solve by themself. Different approaches to different ways of facing risk.”

Details:

Published July 2007, ©Eduardo Herrera Lana, Quito-Ecuador. ISBN: 978-9942-01-109-1 Includes a version of Crystal Ball software.

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Decision Support Systems
By Daniel J. Power

Description:

Decision Support Systems: Frequently Asked Questions is the authoritative reference guide to computerized Decision Support Systems.

Author Dan Power has spent almost 30 years building, studying and teaching others about computerized Decision Support Systems. Dr. Power is first and foremost a Decision Support evangelist and generalist. From his vantage point as editor of DSSResources.COM, he tracks a broad range of contemporary DSS topics.

In this DSS FAQ , Dr. Power answers 83 frequently asked questions about computerized decision support systems. The FAQ covers a broad range of contemporary topics and the questions are organized into 8 chapters. References to Crystal Ball are spread throughout the book.

DSS FAQ helps readers understand questions like:

What is a DSS?
What kind of DSS does Mr. X need?
Does data modeling differ for a Data-Driven DSS?
Is a Data Warehouse a DSS?
Is tax preparation software an example of a DSS?
What do I need to know about Data Warehousing/OLAP?
What is a cost estimation DSS?
What is a Spreadsheet-based DSS?

Decision Support Systems: Frequently Asked Questions is a useful resource for IT specialists, students, professors and managers. It organizes important Ask Dan! questions (with answers) published in DSS News from 2000 through 2004.

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Introduction to Decision Analysis
By David C. Skinner

Description:

Introduction to Decision Analysis is a practical, step-by-step guide to making better decisions. The book is designed for the practicing manager, technical professional, and decision analyst.

Mr. Skinner provides proven techniques based on solid experience to help face complex, challenging, uncertain, and ambiguous choices. Decision analysis provides a process whereby all parties affected by the decision can be involved and participate in building a win-win solution.

New to the second edition of Mr. Skinner's classic text are: new thinking about uncertainty and ambiguity, Monte Carlo simulation, guides to implementing large projects, "How 2" guides, and full interactive integration with Mr. Skinner's web site. Chapter 9: Using Simulation to Solve Decision Problems discusses the use of Crystal Ball.

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Statistics, Data Analysis, and Decision Modeling, 2e
By James R. Evans and David L. Olson

Description:

This textbook covers the basic concepts of business statistics, data analysis, and management science in a contemporary spreadsheet environment. Similar to Evans and Olson's Essentials of Business Statistics, this business-school level textbook expands on decision modeling concepts and includes advanced units on system simulation modeling and analysis, selection models and decision analysis, and optimization modeling and solutions.

Each unit of Statistics, Data Analysis, and Decision Modeling features informative questions, problems, real-world cases, and screen shots. Two units are dedicated to random variables, probability distributions, and Monte Carlo simulation. The authors discuss Crystal Ball, CB Predictor, OptQuest, and the Decision Table tool apply them to solve business-based decision analysis problems.

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Why Can’t You Just Give Me the Number? – An executive’s guide to using probabilistic thinking to manage risk and to make better decisions
By Patrick Leach

Description:

Executives routinely make major decisions in the face of high uncertainty – indeed, managing risk and uncertainty is one of the key functions of any senior manager. Techniques for estimating the probabilities of various scenarios (and the impact of those scenarios) have existed for years. Yet many of the men and women in executive positions do not understand how to use the results of these analyses appropriately.

This book supplies that understanding in language that non-statisticians can understand. The emphasis is on the practical; real-life examples run throughout the book. Topics covered include why major projects are so often late and over budget, when to spend money on new information (and when not to), the benefits of a risk-neutral approach, psychological weaknesses humans have when dealing with uncertainty, tools to use and traps to avoid, and much more.

Several statistical tools, including Monte Carlo simulation and decision trees, are described in general in the book, with examples of the insights that such tools can provide to executive decision makers.

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Tolerance Design : A Handbook for Developing Optimal Specifications
By Clyde M. Creveling

Description:

Whether an engineer, designer, draftsman, or technician, each member of the design engineering team has a valuable role to play in the development of product specifications. Tolerance Design recognizes this development process as the responsibility of the entire team and provides practical solutions that each team member can readily apply. The step-by-step details of analytical and experimental tolerance development methods are clearly explained, and as a result, you will be able to develop tolerances more economically.

The book is presented in four sections: Introductory topics to position the tolerance development process, Traditional Analytical and Computer-Aided Tolerance Development (which includes a chapter on using Crystal Ball), Taguchi's Approach to Experimental Methods of Tolerance Development, as well as several actual industrial case studies illustrating the book's concepts. This book includes a major emphasis for Tolerance Design using Taguchi's Quality Loss Function in harmony with Motorola's famous methods for Six Sigma quality.

The blend of practical examples with substantive case studies provides a comprehensive process approach to tolerance development. Any company interested in properly developing tolerances for their manufacturing, assembly, or service communities will find this text to be a thorough and effective training resource and reference handbook. Students of design and engineering will find this book invaluable as they prepare to enter a competitive job market where practical design optimization skills are at a premium.

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Should We Risk It? : Exploring Environmental, Health, and Technological Problem Solving
By David M. Hassenzahl, Daniel M. Kammen

Description:

How dangerous is smoking? What are the risks of nuclear power or of climate change? What are the chances of dying on an airplane? More importantly, how do we use this information once we have it? The demand for risk analysts who are able to answer such questions has grown exponentially in recent years.

Yet programs to train these analysts have not kept pace. In this book, Daniel Kammen and David Hassenzahl address that problem. They draw together, organize, and seek to unify previously disparate theories and methodologies connected with risk analysis for health, environmental, and technological problems. They also provide a rich variety of case studies and worked problems, meeting the growing need for an up-to-date book suitable for teaching and individual learning.

The specific problems addressed in the book include order-of-magnitude estimation, dose-response calculations, exposure assessment, extrapolations and forecasts based on experimental or natural data, modeling and the problems of complexity in models, fault-tree analysis, managing and estimating uncertainty, and social theories of risk and risk communication. The authors cover basic and intermediate statistics, as well as Monte Carlo methods (with descriptions and charts from Crystal Ball), Bayesian analysis, and various techniques of uncertainty and forecast evaluation.

The volume's unique approach will appeal to a wide range of people in environmental science and studies, health care, and engineering, as well as to policy makers confronted by the increasing number of decisions requiring risk and cost/benefit analysis.

"This is a splendid book. It should be of interest to a wide range of students and professionals across the environmental and health sciences." (John Harte, University of California, Berkeley; author of Consider a Spherical Cow)

"This book will be very useful as a text in a risk-analysis class. It will also be a valuable reference for practitioners of risk assessment in industry, government, and consulting. . . . The organization of the book is logical and effective." (James K. Hammitt, Harvard University)

Details:

Reprint edition (June 1, 2001), Princeton Univ Pr; softcover, 404 pp., ISBN: 0691074577. Does not include a version of Crystal Ball.

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Improving Regulation : Cases in Environment, Health, and Safety
By Paul S. Fischbeck (Editor), R. Scott Farrow (Editor)

Description:

Is there potential for a U.S. regulatory system that is more efficient and effective? Or is the future likely to involve "paralysis by analysis"? Improving Regulation considers the challenges faced by the regulatory system as society and technology change, and our knowledge about the effects of our activities on human and planetary health becomes more sophisticated.

While considering the difficulty in linking regulatory design and performance, Improving Regulation makes the case for empowering regulatory analysis. Studying applications as diverse as fire protection, air and water pollution, and genetics, its contributors examine the strategies of different stakeholders in today's complex policymaking environment. With a focus on the behavior of institutions and people, they consider the impact that organizational politics, science, technology, and performance have on regulation. They explore the role of technology in creating and reducing uncertainty, the costs of control, the potential involvement of previously unregulated sectors, and the contentious public debates about fairness and participation in regulatory policy.

Arguing that the success of many regulations depends upon their acceptance by the public, Fischbeck, Farrow, and their contributors offer extensive, inductive evidence on the art of regulatory analysis. The resulting book provides "real world" examples of regulation, and a demonstration of how to synthesize analytical skills with a knowledge of physical and social processes.

Scott Farrow co-authored Chapter 19, "Facilitating Regulatory Design and Stakeholder Participation," which describes and includes a computer template for benefit-cost analysis. This template, the Fast Environmental Regulatory Evaluation Tool (FERET) uses Crystal Ball in its risk analysis.The book does not include a version of Crystal Ball. A PDF version of this chapter (model not included) is available free at the publisher's site.

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Data Models and Decisions: The Fundamentals of Management Science
By Dimitris Bertsimas, MIT Sloan School of Management, and Robert Freund, MIT Sloan School of Management

Description:

The book combines topics from two traditionally distinct quantitative subjects: probability/statistics and management science, into one unified treatment of quantitative methods and models for management and business.

The book stresses those fundamental concepts that the authors' believe are most important for the practical analysis of management decisions. Consequently, it focuses on modeling and evaluating uncertainty explicitly, understanding the dynamic nature of decision-making, using historical data and limited information effectively, simulating complex systems, and allocating scarce resources optimally.

The book includes a CD-ROM containing spreadsheet data and partially and/or fully constructed spreadsheet models for many of the cases in the book and a trial version of Crystal Ball 2000 Professional Edition simulation software. Crystal Ball is applied in the construction and use of the simulation case models in Chapter 5 (Simulation Models: Concepts and Practice).

South-Western College Publishing provides an excellent walkthrough of the book, including an overview, table of contents, features list, and description of the authors.

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Designing Strategic Cost Systems: How to Unleash the Power of Cost Information
By Lianabel Oliver, MBA, CPA, CMA

Description:

The long-term survival of a company is dependent on how knowledgeable its controllers and senior managers are about its costs. Do the costs accurately reflect the resources consumed by the business processes? Can the cost information generated by its financial systems be trusted to make key management decisions? In Designing Strategic Cost Systems, recognized business planning and cost management expert Lianabel Oliver provides a comprehensive and accessible road map for the design, development, and implementation of an effective and competitive strategic cost system.

While traditional financial statements measure aggregate organizational performance, they are totally inadequate to identify opportunities to increase a corporation’s competitiveness in the marketplace. A good cost system can provide the business intelligence to make better decisions at all levels in the organization. Written for senior managers who are evaluating a cost system redesign project for their organization and business professionals who are part of the project team, Designing Strategic Cost Systems demonstrates how to design a cost system that will be a more effective decision-making tool and a source of competitive advantage for the organization.

Designing Strategic Cost Systems offers a multidisciplinary roadmap for the design, development, and implementation of a strategic cost system. The textbook shows how to design a cost system to become a more effective decision-making tool and a source of competitive advantage for the organisation. It describes how to structure a cost systems design project and discuss the issues that should be addressed upfront from a management, operations, and costing perspective.

Designing Strategic Cost Systems covers:

How to tell if a new cost system is needed: Discusses the internal and external manifestations of a dysfunctional cost system and how it can affect an organization’s performance and competitive position
The attributes of a strategic cost system: Explains the six major elements that comprise a cost system and how these elements interact to produce reliable and accurate cost information
The redesign process: Describes the different project stages and how to organize the project to increase its probabilities of success
The steps involved in developing the system design: Details the major milestones and tasks that should be accomplished to ensure consistency in the data collection process and minimize wasted time and effort in reworking information

The book includes an entire appendix dedicated to the use of Monte Carlo simulation to set standards. Crystal Ball is featured in an example that examines standards involved with the manufacture of plastic products.

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Introduction to Management Science, 8e
By Bernard W. Taylor, III, Virginia Polytechnic Institute & State University

Description:

The objective of "Introduction to Management Science, 8e" is to help the reader solve the decision-making problems that confront managers in both the public and private sectors. It demonstrates the use of mathematical models to solve these problems, and provides numerous examples and illustrations to help the reader easily understand the material presented.

The textbook's concentration on computer solutions with Microsoft® Excel spreadsheets allows the reader to focus on the newest technological tools. Topics covered in this comprehensive book are linear programming; integer programming; transportation, transshipment, and assignment problems; network flow models; project management; nonlinear programming; probability and statistics; decision analysis; queuing analysis; simulation; forecasting; and inventory management.

With its comprehensive appendices and CD-ROM module examples, this book is an excellent reference work for managers that utilize modeling techniques to solve problems and make decisions. The CD-ROM includes a Student/Textbook Edition of Crystal Ball 2000.2.

A text for quantitative courses in management science, ideal for students with limited mathematical backgrounds. Learning features include chapter summaries, example problems, questions, exercises, and cases, with selected answers. This eighth edition is reorganized to reflect a clearer split between deterministic and probabilistic topics, and provides optional spreadsheet solutions in most chapters.

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An Introduction to Management Science: Quantitative Approaches to Decision Making, 11/e
By David Ray Anderson, Dennis J. Sweeney, Thomas Arthur Williams

Description: The eleventh edition of Introduction to Management Science provides thorough, application-oriented coverage in a very readable writing style. Common opinion holds that this book is the leading text on the management science market, and this new edition includes more case studies, examples, exercises, and commentaries than ever before.

The problem-scenario approach introduces quantitative procedures through situations that include both problem formulation and technique application. The extensive linear programming coverage includes problem formulation, computer solution, and practical application. The text covers transportation, assignment, and the integer programming extension of linear programming, as well as advanced topics like waiting line models, simulation (with Crystal Ball), and decision analysis. A large selection of problems includes self-test problems with complete solutions and case problems. Microsoft® Excel spreadsheet appendices are included as well.

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Management Decision Making: Spreadsheet Modeling, Analysis, and Applications
By George E. Monahan

Description:

Management Decision Making is a spreadsheet-based introduction to the tools and techniques of modern managerial decision making. The author shows how to formulate models in Microsoft Excel that can be used to analyze complex problems taken from all the functional areas of management, including finance, marketing, operations, and human resources.

Throughout, the goal is to understand how business decisions are reached, what tradeoffs are made, and how outcomes depend on the underlying data. The book begins with chapters describing how to create spreadsheet models and how to analyze the output. The second half of the book is dedicated to decision making under uncertainty, with an entire chapter dedicated to Monte Carlo simulation.

A CD-ROM is included that contains Crystal Ball and other decision analysis packages. A solutions manual and transparencies of all figures are available on the Web. The book is aimed at students of business, economics and engineering, including those taking MBA courses.

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Management Science and Decision Technology
By Jeff Camm and James Evans

Description:

The focus of this book is on using data and spreadsheet models effectively to gain insight and make sound decisions. The text's hands-on approach covers data collection, building good spreadsheet models, visualization, statistical analysis, forecasting, optimization, decision and risk analysis, and simulation. Trial versions of software used in all these areas are provided on a CD-ROM packaged with the text.

The text focuses on three fundamental topics of management science - decision and risk analysis, optimization, and simulation - along with the decision technology support required to solve real problems (data management, data analysis, and forecasting), using spreadsheets and other special software included with the text.

Microsoft Excel is integrated for modeling and analysis. Excel capabilities like data tables, charts, and database support are used wherever possible to help illustrate and explain ideas. Excel Exercises are usually extensions of text examples and provide hands-on practice to the reader.

"Management Science Practice" examples involve real applications in real businesses. In addition, each chapter presents several short write-ups of practical applications of the tools and techniques. Unique chapter on Data Management and Analysis (Chapter 2) describes key issues needed to use management science effectively -- sorting and filtering data, data visualization, and relevant statistical applications.

If you'd like to read more, you can visit the automatic book tour located on the South-Western College Publishing Web site.

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Managerial Decision Modeling with Spreadsheets
By Barry Render, Ralph M. Stair Jr., and Nagraj Balakrishnan

Description:

Filling a void for a balanced approach to spreadsheet-based decision modeling, this textbook builds on the traditions and strengths of Render and Stair's Quantitative Methods for Management, a recognized and proven leader in teaching decision modeling. In addition to using spreadsheets as a tool to quickly set up and solve decision models, the authors teach how and why the methods work and combine the user's power to logically model and analyze diverse decision-making scenarios with software-based solutions.

The book discusses the fundamental concepts, assumptions and limitations behind each decision modeling technique, shows how each decision model works and illustrates the real-world usefulness of each technique with many applications from both profit and nonprofit organizations. The authors provide an introduction to managerial decision modeling, linear programming models, modeling applications and sensitivity analysis, transportation, assignment, and network models, integer, goal, and nonlinear programming models, project management, decision theory, queuing models, simulation modeling, forecasting models and inventory control models. For anyone looking for a balanced approach to spreadsheet based decision modeling.

Crystal Ball and the Decision Table tool are discussed in the unit on simulation modeling. The book comes with a CD-ROM that includes the Student Edition of Crystal Ball Professional (valid for 140 days from date of installation) and example models for Crystal Ball.

Details:

Prentice Hall, Copyright 2002, hardbound, 662 pp., ISBN: 0130783811.
CD-ROM includes Student Edition (140-day version) of Crystal Ball® Professional.

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Managerial Decision Modeling with Spreadsheets - Canadian Edition
By Barry Render, Ralph M. Stair Jr., Nagraj Balakrishnan, and Brian E. Smith

Description:

Same as book listing above, with these exceptions:

Canadian content throughout in the form of new Canadian chapter-opening vignettes, Decision Modeling in Action textboxes, in-text examples and Excel spreadsheets, end-of-chapter review questions and cases.

In order to cover the topics of Linear, Integer, Goal and Nonlinear programming models in more dept;, our author divided this US chapter into two (Linear and Integer & Goal and Nonlinear)

Details:

Prentice Hall, Copyright 2005, hardbound, 672 pp., ISBN: 0131237292.
CD-ROM includes Student Edition (140-day version) of Crystal Ball® Professional.

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Decision Analysis for Petroleum Exploration, 2/e
By Paul Newendorp and John Schuyler

Description:

This is an update of 1975 best-selling Decision Analysis for Petroleum Exploration. This widely-cited book remains the standard text and reference in the field. This book introduces the reader to ways of applying statistical decision analysis concepts to the analysis of risk and uncertainty in petroleum exploration investment decisions.

Topics covered in the book represent a composite of attitudes and practices used throughout the world for analyzing drilling prospects. The emphasis in this book is on the application of quantitative analysis methods to petroleum exploration decisions. The book will be of special interest to anyone involved in the evaluation of drilling prospects: petroleum geologists, engineers, geophysicists, and management decision makers. A mathematical or statistical background is not required to follow the practical, applications-oriented discussions.

The book first reviews the advantages and disadvantages of various profitability criteria used for selecting and comparing drilling prospects. The important expected value concept is next introduced in chapter 3. This is a decision criterion that derives from judgments about risks and uncertainties expressed as probabilities. Expected value is the cornerstone of any formal, quantitative analysis of decision making under uncertainty.

Included in this discussion on expected value are chapters on the formulation and solution of decision trees, Monte Carlo simulation, and comments on the controversial subject of risk preference (utility) theory. The remainder of the book is devoted to the complex subject of risk analysis - determining the probabilities of occurrence of the possible outcomes of a decision made under conditions of uncertainty. Throughout the book numerous real-world exploration examples are given to illustrate how the decision analysis methods can be applied.

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Risk and Decision Analysis in Project, 2/e
By John Schulyer

Description:

What are the characteristics of successful managers? Surveys consistently show decision-making ability at or near the top of the lists. Perhaps no management activity is more important. Surprisingly, little training investment attends to developing this important skill. In Risk and Decision Analysis in Projects, Schuyler presents the approach and principal techniques of decision analysis to help the reader realize faster, more confident, and better decisions.

Risk and Decision Analysis in Projects is based on the author's popular project management tutorial series published in the Project Management Institute's PM Network. The techniques described in the book are straightforward once you know about them. The methodology is proven and accessible. And the techniques are applicable to all types of project decisions and valuations. With practice, decision analysis is easily integrated into the professional's problem-solving approach.

Making good decisions over the long term increases the probability of meeting your objectives. Those using decision analysis can sleep well at night knowing that they have made the best possible choices under the circumstances. Reading Decision Analysis in Projects is your first best choice.

This text mentions Crystal Ball in the Monte Carlo simulation, modeling, and optimization chapters, as well as in the Decision Analysis Software Appendix (B).

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Published June 2001, Project Management Institute, Softcover, 259 pages; ISBN: 1880410281. Does not include a version of Crystal Ball.

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Project Management: A Managerial Approach, 5/e
By Jack R. Meredith and Samuel J. Mantel

Description:

Project Management: A Managerial Approach addresses project management from a management perspective rather than a cookbook, special area treatise, or collection of loosely associated articles. The book is primarily intended for use as a college textbook for teaching project management at the advanced undergraduate or master's level. The text is appropriate for classes on the management of service, product, engineering projects, as well as information systems (IS).

In this latest edition, the authors have included some coverage of material concerning information systems and how IS projects differ from and are similar to regular business projects. The authors draw upon their personal experiences working with project managers and on the experience of friends and colleagues who have spent much of their working lives serving as project managers in the "real world."

Project Management: A Managerial Approach addresses the basic nature of managing all types of projects - public, business, engineering, information systems, and so on - as well as specific techniques and insights required to carry out this unique way of getting things done. The book deals with the problems of selecting projects, initiating them, and operating and controlling them, and it discusses the demands made on the project manager and the nature of the manager's interaction with the rest of the parent organization. The textbook also covers the difficult problems associated with conducting a project using people and organizations that represent different cultures and may be separated by considerable distances. It even covers the issues arising when the decision is made to terminate a project.

This edition features a greatly expanded coverage of risk management. This is also the first edition that includes Crystal Ball software (a 140-day Student Edition), which is used in sections discussing uncertainty and risk management, critical chain analysis, and project scheduling. The text includes some example models and step-by-step instruction.

Details:

Published December 2002, John Wiley & Sons; Hardcover, 704 pages; ISBN: 0471073237. Includes a Student Edition (140-day version) of Crystal Ball 2000 Professional on CD.

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Project Management in Practice
By Samuel J. Mantel (Editor), Jack R. Meredith, Scott M. Shafer, Sutton, Margaret Sutton, Jr., Samuel J. Mantel

Description:

This brief, hands-on, and applied book focuses on the basic fundamentals of project management. The text offers a sturdy foundation of fundamental concepts, case studies, and real-world project management skills. The authors work through the entire process of management, from planning to budgeting to scheduling to controlling to terminating a project.

This textbook is computer and spreadsheet oriented and is packaged with Microsoft Project and a 140-day trial version Crystal Ball. Appendix C is entirely dedicated to risk analysis using Crystal Ball, with graphics, step-by-step instructions, and example applications.

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Published December 2000, John Wiley & Sons; Hardcover, 336 pages;ISBN: 0471371629. Includes a version of Crystal Ball 2000 Professional on CD.

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Commercial Real Estate Analysis and Investments, 2e
By David M. Geltner, Norman G. Miller, Jim Clayton, and Piet Eichholtz

Description:

The well-known and respected authorship team of Geltner and Miller bring you a new edition of what has become the undisputed and authoritative resource on commercial real estate analysis and investment. Streamlined and completely updated with expanded coverage of corporate and international real estate investment, this upper-level real estate text presents the essential concepts, principles and tools for the analysis of commercial real estate (income producing) from an investment perspective.

Once again, Commercial Real Estate Analysis and Investments, 2e bridges the gap between mainstream finance and the current cutting edge of professional real estate practice, in order to address the implications of their key differences. This new edition continues to integrate relevant aspects of urban and financial economics to provide users with a fundamental analytical understanding and application of real estate investments. Other chapter topics include periodic returns measurement, risk analysis, asset valuation, investment analysis, leverage, capital structure, portfolio theory, and option valuation theory. This textbook also features a short section on Monte Carlo simulation and sensitivity analysis. An accompanying CD-ROM includes a Textbook Edition (140-day limit) of Crystal Ball Professional Edition and several Crystal Ball software exercises.

In this edition Geltner and Miller enhance their unmatched pedagogy by adding in a discussion of the real options application to real estate development and streamlining the discussion of data returns. Author Piet Eichholtz from the University of Maasstricht contributes an entire chapter that explores international real estate investments, both opportunistically and structurally, by outlining elements for developing and implementing real estate investments successfully abroad. Jim Clayton from the University of Cincinnati thoroughly revised and updated the finance coverage and end-of-chapters questions throughout.

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Real Estate Investment; A Capital Market Approach
By Gerald R. Brown, George A. Matysiak

Description:

Periodic worldwide economic turmoil over the last few decades has created an environment in which the degree of risk of investment assets is now an important factor in their evaluation. This text is the first to examine the effect of such changes on real estate markets, taking an in-depth look at three major areas of financial and economic importance within the real estate profession:

The time value of money and the valuation of cash flows,
Risk and return in real estate, and
Portfolio management.

A unique feature of the book is its extensive use of empirical evidence, with ideas supported by research that has been undertaken using real property data. In addition, the authors have explored new areas by pushing back the boundaries of research, to encourage debate and provide a framework for the development of new ideas. The authors describe how Crystal Ball and simulation can be applied to control and identify risk. The book does not come with a trial version of Crystal Ball.

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Dealmaking: Using Real Options and Monte Carlo Analysis
By Richard Razgaitis

Description:

The underlying purpose of this book is to empower negotiation for business-to-business dealmaking of business opportunities using analytical tools and planning procedures. The focus on practical tools and procedures that can be justifiably used in a business context distinguishes the book from a vast catalog of other negotiation books.

Business negotiation is often characterized as a "take it or leave it" battle of wits between buyer and seller. But it is much, much more. In reality, business negotiation involves two parties (either adversaries or coworkers) faced with reaching a business decision, and who must consider a range of possible options before agreeing on that decision.

Dealmaking Using Real Options and Monte Carlo Analysis details how you can employ two of today's most powerful decision-making tools, Real Options Analysis (ROA) and Monte Carlo Analysis (MCA), to effectively prepare for every negotiation by completely and accurately representing myriad possible futures. This uniquely hands-on book outlines a step-by-step process for determining what you want, learning why it is reasonable to hold such a view, and successfully communicating that knowledge to both internal stakeholders and those on the other side of the negotiation.

Richard Razgaitis, an influential thought leader in the field of licensing and valuation, walks you through the tools and approaches, including:

Real Options Analysis. Sometimes referred to as "Black-Scholes" analysis, it is valuable for determining pricing structures, or options, for such outcomes.
Monte Carlo Analysis, an increasingly popular tool for determining the
likelihood and significance of a complete range of future outcomes.
Checklists, case studies, Web site addresses for further business and
negotiation resources, and more.

In the no-quarter world of business negotiation, a patient and methodical inquiry into all relevant matters is not practical; at the same time, rapid analysis may not provide the data required to satisfy all parties.

What is needed is a model that takes into account the speed and urgency required to effectively prepare for a negotiation while allowing rational and defensible analysis of the numerous real options.

Dealmaking Using Real Options and Monte Carlo Analysis introduces that model. This practical, results-based book unveils a negotiating system that achieves the dual goals of speed and certainty, and is destined to become the method of choice for reaching outcomes designed to satisfy all parties in the negotiation.

This textbook features Crystal Ball screen shots and directions and discusses a detailed application of Crystal Ball for discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis (Chapter 5). The author also covers how the Real Options Analysis Toolkit is used for applications involving dealmaking and real options.

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Published August 2003 by Wiley & Sons, 352 Pages/US, Hard Cover and Cloth, ISBN: 0471250481. Does not include a version of Crystal Ball.

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Real Options: A Practitioner's Guide
By Tom Copeland and Vladimir Antikarov, Monitor Group

Description:

Tom Copeland's landmark book Valuation: Measuring and Managing the Value of Companies sold in excess of 200,000 copies and was translated into more than 10 languages. The Financial Times declared that its "clarity and competence" made it "one of the best practitioners' guides to valuation." Now, Tom Copeland and Vladimir Antikarov offer the first practical tool explaining the latest state-of-the-art thinking sweeping the corporate world: real options.

Determining the feasibility and the priority of potential investments is critical in business decision-making. A new method for estimating the value of investments - Real Options - is gaining ground over the traditional approach of calculating net present value (NPV). Tom Copeland and Vladimir Antikarov argue that in ten years real options will replace NPV as the central paradigm for investment decisions.

Real Options: A Practitioner's Guide is the first text to address real options methodology from the perspective of a manager who wants to implement real options in everyday decision-making. Copeland and Antikarov show that NPV tends to undervalue investment opportunities by failing to consider the many options that management has over the lifetime of an investment project. For example, managers have the option include expanding or extending the project if results are better than expected or scaling down or abandoning the project if it turns out to be worse than expected.

Real Options: A Practitioner's Guide supplements its methodology discussions with case histories and solutions. The end-of-chapter questions and problems provide both experience and additional insights into the application of real options. The authors use Crystal Ball as an integral part of Real Options Analysis and recommend its use with the text. The book will be accompanied by a Web site offering solutions to the end of chapter problems prepared by the authors together with a suite of real option models.

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Triple Bottom Line Risk Management: Enhancing Profit, Environmental Performance, and Community Benefits
By Adrian R. Bowden, Malcolm R. Lane, Julia H. Martin

Description:

With the successful management of business risk, a company has the potential to improve the triple bottom line -- the social, environmental, and financial account-ability of a business.

Written by experts with a collective 60 years of consulting experience, this book will broaden your understanding of business risk assessment techniques. You'll find innovative ideas that you can use to improve your business risk assessment processes and formulate well informed risk management decisions that satisfy corporate objectives. The authors also present numerous real-world case studies so you can clearly see how other business managers have used a new risk characterization and assessment approach to improve their business risk management practices.

Triple Bottom Line Risk Management introduces the RISQUE method (Risk Identification and Strategy Using Quantitative Evaluation), which can be used to assess and quantify business risks in a way that can be proactively addressed in a company's business management strategy.
It incorporates a quantitative risk assessment process that translates intangible environmental and social risks into financial measures that can be used to develop risk treatment strategies. With this method, you'll be able to make informed, defensible, risk management decisions.

As you uncover the new ideas presented in this comprehensive book, you will:

Gain a basic understanding of the methodology, assumptions, advantages, and disadvantages of the RISQUE method
Discover how the RISQUE method can be applied to specific areas within your businesses to reduce negative risk and increase opportunities
Learn how to implement a risk management process that will demon