 The 2004 Crystal Ball User Conference was held June 17-18, 2004 at the Marriott Denver City Center, in beautiful Denver, Colorado. The conference consisted of two full days with over 35 feature case studies, workshops, and in-depth tutorials presented by risk modeling professionals and Crystal Ball experts.
All papers below are organized by their presentation track and order. All are available in pdf format and are free for download. Presentations and models were made available only to conference attendees.
> Modeling Design & Business Applications
> Engineering & Technical Applications
> Workshops & Modeling Techniques
> Interested in attending the next user conference?
Modeling Design & Business Applications
Power Plant Asset Valuation (not available)
By Jim Letzelter, Platts
Business Case Development & Analysis
By Michael J. Stratton, The Boeing Company
Modeling the Financial Impacts of Fluctuating Exchange Rates, Interest Rates, and Commodity Prices
By Stuart Veale, Investment Performance Institute
Retail Loyalty Program Design
By Wayde Fleener, Mark Oedekoven, Carlson Marketing Group
Spreadsheet Engineering of Crystal Ball Simulation Models
By Thomas A. Grossman, Masagung School of Management, University of San Francisco
Financial Risk in Healthcare Provision and Contracts
By Dr. Rod Jones, Healthcare Analysis & Forecasting
The Use of Monte Carlo Simulation and Optimization in Clinical Trial Modeling
By Dr. Russell Ivanhoe, RJI Co.
Advising with Confidence: Using Stochastic Analysis in Financial Planning
By Terence D. Condren, Bank of America Private Bank
Comparing Crystal Ball with ACEIT
By Alfred Smith, Shu-Ping Hu, Tecolote Research Inc.
Risk and Optimal Timing in a Real Estate Development Using Real Options Analysis
By Robert Fourt, Gerald Eve
Telecommunications Network Evolution Decisions: Using Crystal Ball and OptQuest for Real Options Valuation
By John M. Charnes, Barry R. Cobb, The University of Kansas School of Business
Price Optimisation By Using Business Risk Analysis and Game Theory
By Dr. István Fekete, Business Services Line of Business Matáv Rt., (Hungarian Telecommunications Co. Ltd.)
Patent Licensing Valuations Employing Monte Carlo for Expert Witness Testimony
By Neil Kosterman, DeltaQuest LLC d/b/a LSI Group
Engineering & Technical Applications
Formulating Risk into Research and Engineering Projects
By Bryan L. McKinney and David R. Engfer, Fusfeld Group, Inc.
What To Do When You Need 240 Correlations
By David Thomas Keith Morgan, Kurtosis Ltd
A "Top Down" Approach for Modern Portfolio Theory to Oil and Gas Property Investment
By Dr. Frank Moseley, North Dakota University - Minot
Role of Monte Carlo Simulations in Design For Six Sigma
By Narendra Soman, General Electric (Click here for abstract)
Crystal Ball® Implementation in Engineering: Engineering Design Under Uncertainty
By Yosef Amir, General Electric
Electric Power System Portfolio Risk Assessment for the Pacific Northwest
By Michael Schilmoeller, Ph.D., Northwest Power and Conservation Council
Applications of Risk Analysis and Optimization to Evaluation of an Integrated Reliability Improvement Program
By Charles W. Williams Jr., Progress Energy Florida
Water Quality Risk Assessment for Dredging Operations, Plymouth Sound, UK
By Tim Wells, ABP Marine Environmental Research Ltd.
Sensitivity Analysis with Correlated Inputs - An Environmental Risk Assessment Example
By Srikanta Mishra, INTERA Inc.
Evidence-Based Decisions, Six Sigma and Million Dollar Breakthroughs
By
M. Daniel Sloan, Evidence-Based Decisions, Inc.
How to Build Uncertainties to Make Hospital Budgets More Realistic
By Andrew R. Ganti, GE Healthcare
Applying Decision Analysis to Optimize Power Generation Assets
By Arun Mani, Principal, Barrington-Wellesley Group, Inc.
Workshops & Modeling Techniques
Did You Loathe Statistics, Too?
By Huybert Groenendaal, David Vose, Vose Consulting US LLC
Professional Spreadsheet-Based Operations Research Model Development
By Hervé Thiriez, HEC School of Management
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