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IN THIS ISSUE |
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WHAT'S NEW |
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 Less than Two Weeks Until the Fourth Annual User Conference!
Time is running out, but there is still room for you at the 2007 Crystal Ball User Conference. The 2007 Crystal Ball User Conference will be held May 21-23, 2007, at the Westin Tabor Center, in beautiful Denver, Colorado.
Join us at the 2007 Crystal Ball User Conference, a three-day event geared toward Crystal Ball users of all levels. The user conference will feature three days of diverse and practical case studies and workshops hosted by risk modeling professionals and simulation experts.
> See the full program for the 2007 Crystal Ball User Conference and register today!
 Highlights and What's New in 2007
This year's event opens with a keynote from Dr. Venky Gopalaswamy, Business Improvement Services Group Leader, Johnson & Johnson. The Monday, May 21 talk, "Crystal Ball Applications at Johnson & Johnson," is a strategic one that will focus on Crystal Ball software applications at Johnson & Johnson, the history of Crystal Ball software use at Johnson & Johnson, and the challenges and lessons learned in identifying and deploying the software across the global enterprise.
 That evening, at the conference dinner and Monte Carlo Gambling Night, we will award the 2007 Monte Carlo Awards ("The Monties"). The Monties recognize the outstanding and innovative usage of Crystal Ball software. Awards will be given in five categories: Best Technical Application, Best Financial Application, Most Innovative Application, Most Unusual Application, and Best Student/Academic Project.
Finalists for this first-ever award competition include projects from Intel, Motorola, GE, Agriculture & Agri-Food Canada, TRW Automotive, Princeton University, and Bryant University, and many of the finalists will present their nominations in a special track slated for Monday morning.
A Lifetime Achievement Award will be presented to Dr. Narendra Soman, Master Black Belt at
GE Healthcare. Since the early 1990's Dr. Soman has taught and consulted with Crystal Ball software and has actively promoted the use of Monte Carlo simulation both as a design analysis tool and as a process and product improvement tool.
> Read more about the 20 finalists and about Dr. Soman. Visit the Monties Awards page on the Crystal Ball Web site
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 On Day 2 of the conference, Dr. Deborah Bennett will present an entertaining keynote "Making Logical Sense of Language." A professor of Mathematics at New Jersey City University and author of Randomness and Logic Made Easy: How to Know When Language Deceives You, Dr. Bennett will explore how to communicate logically and some of the reasons why our language gets in the way when we are trying to understand one another.
2007 is our best conference yet!
This year, attendees will:
- Discover new strategies for using Crystal Ball through the people who know it best - other users.
- Network and exchange solutions with professionals in your industry who have successfully applied Crystal Ball.
- Take part in the first ever Monties Award ceremony, which recognizes modeling excellence.
- Preview new and upcoming technology in Crystal Ball.
> Register to Attend Today!
> View the outstanding 2007 conference schedule
> Download the conference brochure
 NEW CRYSTAL BALL TEXTBOOK
Financial Modeling with Crystal Ball and Excel®
By John M. Charnes
Published by Wiley Finance
Copyright 2007
Softbound, 269 pp.
ISBN: 0471779725
We are extremely pleased to announce the publication of Financial Modeling with Crystal Ball and Excel, the first book entirely dedicated to using Crystal Ball software for spreadsheet-based problems involving financial risk. This textbook is intended for analysts who wish to construct stochastic Microsoft® Excel financial models and anyone else interested in learning how to use Crystal Ball software.
The first six chapters of this book demonstrate how to use Crystal Ball. The remainder of the text provides examples of using Crystal Ball models to help solve problems in corporate finance, investments, and financial risk management. The appendices provide technical details about what goes on under the hood of the Crystal Ball engine. A 180-day Textbook Version of Crystal Ball is included with this textbook.
Dr. John Charnes, PhD, MBA, is Professor, Scupin Faculty Fellow, and former director of the finance, economics, and decision sciences area in the University of Kansas School of Business. His specialty is the application of computer simulation and statistical methods for identifying and solving business problems, and his most current research involves using simulation for option pricing and hedging with derivatives to comply with Financial Accounting Standard (FAS) 133. Dr. Charnes will be presenting a workshop on options pricing at this year's Crystal Ball User Conference. He has performed research, consulting, and executive education for more than fifty corporations and other organizations.
> Learn more about this textbook
> Order this textbook from Amazon.com
 Full Six Sigma Software Showcase Tour Calendar Announced
Crystal Ball software is teaming with other leading suppliers of software for Six Sigma and the ISSSP (International Society of Six Sigma Professionals) to present a free, half-day workshop to demonstrate the latest Six Sigma software tools, including Minitab® 15, GainSeeker®, RapAnalyst™, and Quality Companion™ 2.
Every attendee will receive a 30-day, single-user evaluation copy of each software package. Registration is required; space is limited. This is a must-attend workshop for:
- Practitioners who want to broaden their skill set,
- Leaders who need to plan the future of their toolset, and
- Anyone who wants a quick education on the best data tools in the Six Sigma market.
Calendar of Upcoming Showcases
May 15 - Chicago, IL
May 16 - Minneapolis, MN
June 13 - Dallas, TX
June 14 - Houston, TX
June 20 - Denver, CO
June 21 - Los Angeles, CA
>  See the schedule and register on the ISSSP Web site
 Upcoming Web Seminars
(1) What’s New in Crystal Ball 7.3
Date: Tuesday, May 15, 2007
Time: 9:00 am Mountain Daylight Time (Denver)
Location: Your desk
Join Eric Wainwright, co-founder and Chief Technology Officer at Decisioneering, Inc., and learn what’s new in Crystal Ball 7.3. This brief, 20-minute Crystal Ball Web seminar will show you all the features available in our newly released 7.3 version.
> Register to attend this Web seminar
(2) The Value of Predictive Analytics in Strategic Corporate Finance
Date: Thursday, May 31, 2007
Time: 9:00 am Mountain Daylight Time (Denver)
Location: Your desk
Monte Carlo simulation provides significant insight into the aggregate effects of risk and uncertainty in a wide range of corporate financial analyses, from corporate valuation for a merger or acquisition, to complex project planning and capital allocation decisions. Join Steve Hoye, Senior Crystal Ball Risk Consultant, as he gives a high-level overview of how simulation and optimization can be used in these important tasks, and discusses the benefits that can be gained over typical deterministic analytics.
> Register to attend this Web seminar
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CRYSTAL BALL RESOURCES |
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RECORDED WEB SEMINAR:
I'll Be Back: DVD Sales Forecasting
Before deciding to sell a DVD nationally, Ruse-Scheme Productions wants to be able to predict its sales. The company has developed a new tool that allows them to communicate with its current customers. The goal — to be able to gauge how many DVDs to create for newly released movies. The challenge — determining how reliable past behavior is at predicting future behavior.
Join Michael Lieberman, President of Multivariate Solutions, and learn how Ruse-Scheme Productions has predicted future sales based on past behavior.
> View this recorded Web seminar
RECORDED WEB SEMINAR:
Integrating Risk Analysis Tools in Financial Analysis
Forecasting, simulation, real options and optimisation techniques are increasingly popular tools that provide Financial Analysts with analytic power beyond the traditional toolset. This one-hour Web seminar, presented by Dave Hammal, Crystal Ball Product Consultant, is designed for both the beginner and advanced financial analyst and will fully cover the A to Z of applying risk analysis techniques.
> View this recorded Web seminar
 ONLINE ARTICLE
The use of antibiotic pharmacodynamic end points in incremental cost-effectiveness analyses: A novel approach for consideration during hospital formulary reviews
Source: Formularyjournal.com, April 1, 2007
Hospital formulary decisions regarding antibiotics are typically made based on the comparative efficacy, safety, and pricing of these agents. Comparative efficacy studies, when available, usually demonstrate equivalence of antibiotics, making it difficult for formulary decision-makers to compare compounds.
The authors propose using the results of pharmacodynamic Monte Carlo simulation studies as a surrogate marker for potential efficacy of antibiotic dosage regimens and applying these end points to the calculation of an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER). Monte Carlo simulation studies consider the antibiotic dosage regimen used, the drug's pharmacokinetics, and the level of susceptibility or resistance of targeted bacteria to arrive at a cumulative fraction of response (CFR), the probability that a specific antibiotic dosage regimen will achieve bactericidal pharmacodynamic exposures against the bacterial population of interest.
> View this online article on Formularyjournal.com
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CRYSTAL BALL EVENTS
ISSSP 2007 Six Sigma Software Tour
May 15 - Chicago, IL
May 16 - Minneapolis, MN
June 13 - Dallas, TX
June 14 - Houston, TX
June 20 - Denver, CO
June 21 - Los Angeles, CA
2007 Crystal Ball User Conference
May 21-23, 2007
Denver, CO
TRAINING SCHEDULE
Crystal Ball Classes
WESTERN US / CANADA
Las Vegas, NV: May 15-16
San Diego, CA: May 15-16
Denver, CO: May 16-17
Denver, CO: May 24-25
Phoenix, AZ: May 30-31
Anchorage, AK: Jun. 26-27
Denver, CO: Jun. 27-28
Seattle, WA: Jul. 18-19
San Francisco, CA: Jul. 21-22
Winnipeg, Canada: Jul. 24-25
Denver, CO: Jul. 24-25
Anaheim, CA: Jul. 31- Aug. 1
Boise, ID: Aug. 7-8
Denver, CO: Aug. 14-15
Albuquerque, NM: Sep. 5-6
Phoenix, AZ: Sep. 11-12
San Diego, CA: Sep. 18-19
Denver, CO: Sep. 18-19
Seattle, WA: Sep. 25-26
CENTRAL US / CANADA
Minneapolis, MN: Jun. 6-7
Chicago, IL: Jun. 26-27
Dallas, TX: Jul. 10-11
Des Moines, IA: Jul. 10-11
San Antonio, TX: Jul. 17-18
Little Rock/Rogers, AR: Jul. 17-18
Milwaukee, WI: Jul. 17-18
Birmingham, AL: Jul. 24-25
Louisville, KY: Aug. 7-8
St. Louis, MO: Aug. 14-15
Nashville, TN: Aug. 28-29
Austin, TX: Aug. 28-29
Kansas City, KS: Aug. 28-29
Chicago, IL: Aug. 28-29
Minneapolis, MN: Sep. 11-12
Cincinnati, OH: Sep. 18-19
Omaha, NE: Sep. 25-26
EASTERN US / CANADA
Atlanta, GA: May 30-31
Washington DC: Jun. 5-6
Toronto, Canada: Jun. 5-6
Islin, NJ: Jun. 12-13
Charlotte, NC: Jun. 12-13
King of Prussia, PA: Jun. 19-20
New York City: Jun. 27-28
Pittsburgh, PA: Jul. 10-11
Washington DC: Jul. 10-11
Ottawa, Canada: Jul. 24-25
Tampa, FL: Jul. 31-Aug. 1
New York City, NY: Jul. 31- Aug. 1
Boston, MA: Aug. 7-8
Washington DC: Aug. 14-15
Raleigh, NC: Aug. 21-22
Toronto, Canada: Aug. 21-22
New Orleans, LA: Sep. 5-6
Rochester, NY: Sep. 5-6
Montreal, Canada: Sep. 11-12
Philadelphia, PA: Sep. 11-12
New York City, NY: Sep. 18-19
Washington DC: Sep. 18-19
Jacksonville, FL: Sep. 25-26
King of Prussia, PA: Sep. 25-26
EUROPE
Frankfurt, Germany: Jun. 12-13
London, England: Jun. 13-14
Munich, Germany: Jun. 19-20
LATIN AMERICA
Mexico City, Mexico: May 15-17
Caracas, Venezuela: Jun. 12-14
ASIA / AUSTRALIA
Perth, Australia: May 14-15
Manila, Philippines: May 28-29
Advanced Crystal Ball for Oil & Gas
Aberdeen, Scotland: May 30-31
Calgary, Canada: Jun. 5-6
Houston, TX: Jun. 19-20
Calgary, Canada: Jun 5-6
Oklahoma City, OK: Aug 14-15
Houston, TX: Sep 5-6
Crystal Ball Applications for Six Sigma
Toronto, Canada: Jun. 7
Des Moines, IA: Jul 12
Boston, MA: Aug 9
Washington DC: Aug 16
Chicago, IL: Aug 30
Montreal, Canada: Sep 13
San Diego, CA: Sep 19
Jacksonville, FL: Sep 27
Introduction to Real Options
Denver, CO: May 18
Frankfurt, Germany: Jun. 14
Chicago, IL: Jun 21
Calgary, Canada: Aug 9
Denver, CO: Aug 16
New York City, NY: Sep 20
Spreadsheet Modeling Techniques for Business: Best Practices
Guatemala City, Guatemala: May 25
London, England: Jun 15
King of Prussia, PA: Jun 21
Washington DC: Jul 12
Ottawa, Canada: Jul 26
Toronto, Canada: Aug 23
Washington DC: Sep 20
Suggest a training
date or location
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4th Annual Canadian Six Sigma Summit
May 30 - June 1
Toronto, ON
Canadian International Petroleum Conference
June 12-14
Calgary, Canada
International Joint ISPA-SCEA Conference
June 12-16
New Orleans, LA
EXPONOR 2007
June 18-22
Antofagasta, Chile
WCBF 3rd Annual Design for Six Sigma Conference
June 19-21
Chicago, IL
SPE International Oil Conference and Exhibition in Mexico
June 28-30
Varacruz, Mexico
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If you have questions, comments, or reader feedback, please send them to us at newsletter@crystalball.com
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Tomorrow's Forecast is an online production of Decisioneering, Inc. Newsletters are e-mailed to subscribers near the end of the first and third weeks of the month.
This e-mail newsletter is sent only to those individuals who either:
(1) Subscribed at our Web site, a training course, or a tradeshow, or
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 ONE-MINUTE SPOTLIGHT:
The Crystal Ball Scatter
Chart
Once you have run a Crystal Ball simulation, you can view several
charts to help you visualize, understand, and communicate the simulation
results. This Spotlight uses Crystal Ball and a simple spreadsheet (shown below)
to demonstrate how you use a scatter chart. Scatter charts are a new feature of Crystal Ball 7.3.
This example model demonstrates the application of combining simulation with a designed experiment. The model uses the results from a designed experiment to simulate the variability in the part length (the response, or transfer function from the designed experiment) based on variability in each of three factors. The three factors are defined as assumptions with appropriate normal probability distributions, and simulation of the model results in a distribution of the response and the likelihood of defective parts (those with lengths that are out of spec).
> Read the entire spotlight
| Share a comment, risk analysis tip or a new CB Tip with your fellow Crystal Ball software users! Send your contribution to newsletter@crystalball.com. |
> Previously published tips and techniques
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CONFERENCE ROUNDUP |
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SPEAKING OPPORTUNITIES |
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These conferences have announced a call for speakers. If you wish to submit a talk that discusses Crystal Ball software in some aspect, and if that talk is accepted, please let us know. We are always willing to offer some form of support to our customers.
 The 7th National Space Systems Engineering & Risk Management Symposium
February 26–29, 2008,
Los Angeles, CA
The 7th National Space Systems Engineering & Risk Management Symposium will bring together system engineering and risk management professionals involved in the acquisition and operation of space systems. Leaders and practitioners from defense, government, industry, and academia will share knowledge and information about best practices, lessons learned, new acquisition policies, industry initiatives, and new and alternative methods and tools to mitigate the risks inherent in space system development and operation.
Authors interested in presenting papers or participating in panel sessions should submit a one-page abstract. Content should emphasize space systems engineering with risk management as a fundamental element from the perspectives of analytical techniques, data collection and management, computer and information technologies, human interface, advanced tools and methodologies, and program experience. Technical paper abstracts are due no later than May 30, 2007.
View the Call For Papers flyer at http://www.aero.org/conferences/riskmgmt/documents/2008cfp.pdf
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CBUG DISCUSSIONS |
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The Crystal Ball User Group (CBUG) is a Yahoo!® online forum where Crystal Ball software users can discuss issues and methods related to Crystal Ball software.
PLEASE NOTE: You have several message delivery options when you join, including whether or not to receive single or digest e-mails. You can also opt not to receive any e-mail and simply log onto the Web site every so often to view discussion.
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Copyright (c) 2007 Decisioneering, Inc. "Decisioneering" and "Crystal Ball" are registered trademarks of Decisioneering, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Microsoft and Excel are registered trademarks of Microsoft Corporation in the U.S. and other countries.
Minitab and the Minitab logo are registered trademarks and Quality Companion is a trademark of Minitab Inc.
GainSeeker
is a registered trademark of Hertzler Systems, Inc.
RapAnalyst is a trademark of Raptor International.
Yahoo! is a registered trademark of Yahoo! Inc.
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May 10, 2007
