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IN THIS ISSUE |
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WHAT'S NEW |
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 New Textbook Will Be Shipped With Crystal Ball Premium Edition
We are pleased to announce that Financial Modeling with Crystal Ball and Excel, the first book entirely dedicated to using Crystal Ball software for spreadsheet-based problems involving financial risk, will now be shipped as part of Crystal Ball Premium Edition.
This textbook, written by Professor John Charnes of the University of Kansas and published by Wiley Finance, is intended for students and professionals who wish to construct stochastic Microsoft Excel financial models and learn how to use Crystal Ball software.
> Learn more about this textbook
> Learn more about Crystal Ball Premium Edition
Crystal Ball software is a proud sponsor!
WCBF’s 2nd Annual Global Six Sigma Summit & Awards
October 23-26, 2007
Rio All-Suite Hotel & Casino, Las Vegas
http://www.gsssa.com
Full program now available to download!
15% discount when you quote the following discount code: 5081CB15 |
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 Upcoming Web Seminars
(1) Effective Techniques and Tools for Modeling Very Large Spreadsheet Simulations
Date: Wednesday, June 27, 2007
Time: 9:00 am Mountain Daylight Time (Denver)
Location: Your desk
One of the benefits of using Crystal Ball software within Microsoft Excel is that it is immediately intuitive and easy to use. Because Crystal Ball software users are unconstrained, they are free to design and build simulation models as large and as complex as they please. As spreadsheets become large or complex they become increasingly more challenging to handle and maintain. Please join Loren Abdulezer, CEO of Evolving Technologies Corporation, as he identifies some best practices and effective techniques for Crystal Ball models. He will specifically focus on reducing common problems that plague large and complex spreadsheets.
> Register to attend this Web seminar
(2) Cost and Risk Modelling - The Challenging Business Driver
Date: Thursday, July 5, 2007
Time: 2:30 pm BST (London)
Location: Your desk
Organisations today are increasingly challenged with cost and risk modelling. Join Professor Rajkumar Roy for this one-hour Crystal Ball Web seminar and learn about these challenges and why they have become a business driver. Professor Roy leads the Cost Engineering research group at Cranfield University. He will share his over 10 years of experience in working with several industries in this area. The seminar will provide case study examples and discuss the major issues in industry both from customer and supplier perspectives.
> Register to attend this Web seminar
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CRYSTAL BALL RESOURCES |
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 ONLINE NEWSLETTER
Stay in the loop with our Education Alliance Newsletter
Whether you’re a commercial or academic user, our Education Alliance Newsletter offers insight into how Crystal Ball software is being taught and incorporated into the training of tomorrow’s leaders. Our Education Alliance program provides ongoing support to everyone from undergrad professors to EMBA students, and our monthly e-mail newsletter gives subscribers a wealth of updates, opinions, resources and campus news.
At the Education Alliance, we feel it’s important to keep everyone connected to the world of academia, and our newsletter is an easy and insightful way for you to do so.
> Subscribe to the Education Alliance Newsletter
> Check out this month’s newsletter
WHITE PAPER
Basic Cost Risk Analysis: Using Crystal Ball on Government Life Cycle Cost Estimates
R. Kim Clark, Associate, Booz Allen Hamilton
Source: 2007 Crystal Ball User Conference
Requirements today necessitate the need to include cost risk analysis in all government life cycle cost estimates. In particular, the Air Force Cost Analysis Agency has developed a Cost Risk Analysis Handbook to be used as a guideline when conducting basic cost risk analysis. Crystal Ball software is an excellent choice as a tool to be used for cost risk analysis on government cost estimates, particularly when cost models are developed in Microsoft Excel.
Crystal Ball software allows for the accomplishment of basic cost risk analysis on life cycle cost estimates. Those basics include selecting the distribution type for an identified risk, determining the input parameters to fit the distribution selected, completing the correlation matrix, running the simulation, allocating the risk dollars back to the appropriate line items, and running final reports on the analysis.
> View the entire white paper
MONTE FINALIST:
"Passenger Side Inflatable Restraint (PSIR) Inflator Ballistic Performance Improvement / Gas Fill Process Improvement"
TRW Automotive
Source: 2007 Crystal Ball User Conference
To reduce Passenger Side Inflatable Restraint (PSIR) airbag inflator development time and costs, a series of experiments were performed for several inflator configurations. Additionally, several experiments were performed on the manufacturing process that fills the inflator with the gas and fuel combination. Using experimental design techniques to find the relationship (transfer functions) between the inputs factors (decision variables) and the responses (forecasts), evaluation of factor sensitivity and goal or target achievement can be achieved.
Project benefits included:
- Improved inflator gas fill parameters to meet customer ballistic specification limits while increasing production yield.
- Improved gas fill process for more consistent fill parameters and sensitivity to inflator variation (volume & temperature).
- Increased gas fill process yield from 59.9% to 94.6%.
- Project resulted in savings of $456k
> View this Monte presentation (PDF format)
CB TIP:
Non-monotonic Relationships Between Assumptions and Forecasts
If you frequently use sensitivity charts to find which assumptions are influencing your forecasts the most (or the least), you should be aware that sensitivity charts are of limited use when you have assumptions whose relationships with the target forecast are not monotonic. A monotonic relationship means that an increase in the assumption tends to be accompanied by a strict increase in the forecast; or an increase in the assumption tends to be accompanied by a strict decrease in the forecast.
When a variable’s relationship with the forecast is not strictly increasing or decreasing, it is called non-monotonic, and if an assumption has a non-monotonic relationship with the target forecast, the sensitivity chart may not calculate and display correctly the influence of the assumption on the forecast. Put another way, if the minimum or maximum values of the forecast range do not occur at the extreme endpoints of the testing range for the variable, the variable has a non-monotonic relationship with the forecast.
Crystal Ball provides two methods by which you can detect non-monotonic relationships between assumptions and target forecasts: the Tornado Chart Tool and Scatter Charts (new in version 7.3).
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TRAINING SCHEDULE
Crystal Ball Classes
WESTERN US / CANADA
Denver, CO: Jun. 27-28
Seattle, WA: Jul. 17-18
Edmonton, AB: Jul. 24-25
Seattle, WA: Jul. 18-19
Winnipeg, Canada: Jul. 24-25
Denver, CO: Jul. 24-25
Anaheim, CA: Jul. 31- Aug. 1
Boise, ID: Aug. 7-8
Denver, CO: Aug. 21-22
San Francisco, CA: Aug. 21-22
Albuquerque, NM: Sep. 5-6
Phoenix, AZ: Sep. 11-12
San Diego, CA: Sep. 18-19
Denver, CO: Sep. 18-19
Seattle, WA: Sep. 25-26
CENTRAL US / CANADA
Dallas, TX: Jul. 10-11
Des Moines, IA: Jul. 10-11
San Antonio, TX: Jul. 17-18
Little Rock/Rogers, AR: Jul. 17-18
Milwaukee, WI: Jul. 17-18
Birmingham, AL: Jul. 24-25
Louisville, KY: Aug. 7-8
St. Louis, MO: Aug. 14-15
Austin, TX: Aug. 28-29
Kansas City, KS: Aug. 28-29
Chicago, IL: Aug. 28-29
Minneapolis, MN: Sep. 11-12
Cincinnati, OH: Sep. 18-19
Omaha, NE: Sep. 25-26
EASTERN US / CANADA
New York City: Jun. 27-28
Pittsburgh, PA: Jul. 10-11
Washington DC: Jul. 10-11
Ottawa, Canada: Jul. 24-25
Tampa, FL: Jul. 31-Aug. 1
New York City, NY: Jul. 31- Aug. 1
Boston, MA: Aug. 7-8
Washington DC: Aug. 14-15
Raleigh, NC: Aug. 21-22
Toronto, Canada: Aug. 21-22
New Orleans, LA: Sep. 5-6
Rochester, NY: Sep. 5-6
Montreal, Canada: Sep. 11-12
Philadelphia, PA: Sep. 11-12
New York City, NY: Sep. 18-19
Washington DC: Sep. 25-26
Jacksonville, FL: Sep. 25-26
EUROPE
London, England: Jul. 24-26
London, England: Sep. 4-6
Frankfurt, Germany: Sep. 18-20
Paris, France: Oct. 3-5
LATIN AMERICA
Visit the Web site for updates
ASIA / AUSTRALIA
Visit the Web site for updates
Advanced Crystal Ball for Oil & Gas
Calgary, AB: Aug 7-8
Oklahoma City, OK: Aug. 14-15
Houston, TX: Sep. 5-6
Aberdeen, Scotland: Sep. 12-13
Crystal Ball Applications for Six Sigma
Boston, MA: Aug. 9
Washington DC: Aug. 16
Chicago, IL: Aug. 30
Montreal, Canada: Sep. 13
San Diego, CA: Sep. 20
Jacksonville, FL: Sep. 27
Introduction to Real Options
Calgary, Canada: Aug. 9
Denver, CO: Aug. 23
New York City, NY: Sep. 20
Spreadsheet Modeling Techniques for Business: Best Practices
Washington DC: Jul. 12
Ottawa, Canada: Jul. 26
Toronto, Canada: Aug. 23
Washington DC: Sep. 27
Suggest a training
date or location
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Lean and Six Sigma for Defense
June 25-28
Del Mar, CA
SPE International Oil Conference and Exhibition in Mexico
June 28-30
Veracruz, Mexico
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If you have questions, comments, or reader feedback, please send them to us at newsletter@crystalball.com
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Tomorrow's Forecast is an online production of Decisioneering, Inc. Newsletters are e-mailed to subscribers near the end of the first and third weeks of the month.
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In a Tornado chart (shown above), if one or more variables are non-monotonic, all variable bars, even for monotonic variables, are the same color all the way across. You can also see non-monotonic relationships by the shape of the curve shown in the Spider chart (shown at the right).
In a Scatter Chart (shown below), you can quickly see which variable has a non-monotonic relationship with the forecast. In the screen shot below, Variable B displays a non-monotonic relationship with the Output forecast. |
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Share a comment, risk analysis tip or a new CB Tip with your fellow Crystal Ball users! Send your contribution to newsletter@crystalball.com.
> Previously published tips and techniques
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MONTE CARLO IN THE NEWS |
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Formation, Dynamics, and Characterization of Nanostructures By Ion Beam Irradiation
Source: RedOrbit, June 16, 2007
Ion beam irradiation is a potential tool for phase formation and material modification as a non-equilibrium technique. A major component of materials science is dominated by ion beam methods, either for synthesis of materials or for its characterization. Monte Carlo simulation is used within this technical study.
TSA rolls dice on risk model
Source: GCN, June 4, 2007
TSA, a Homeland Security Department agency, has recently announced plans to enter into a no-fee agreement with Boeing, under which the company would build a Risk Management Assessment Tool, or RMAT, for the commercial aviation system using what’s known as the Monte Carlo model.
Supply Chain Optimization versus Simulation
Source: SupplyChainDigest, May 31, 2007
General discussion of how optimization and simulation can be used together for supply chain management.
Read about Monte Carlo simulation in a recent article or paper? Let us know! Send your citation to newsletter@crystalball.com. |
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MICROSOFT EXCEL & THE WEB |
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WEB SITES:
Asian Risk Management Institute (ARiMI)
http://www.arimi.org/arimi/about/newsroom.html#PAI
The mission of the Asian Risk Management Institute (ARiMI) is "to promote a stimulating learning environment that brings together people, cultures and ideas from around the world." The organization's Web site has many resources, including a helpful library of current risk-related articles (the direct link is listed above).
Microsoft Office Online Tip: Create a Drop-down List in Microsoft Excel 2003
http://office.microsoft.com/en-us/excel/HP052022151033.aspx
To make data entry easier, or to limit entries to certain items that you define, you can create a drop-down list of valid entries that is compiled from cells elsewhere on the worksheet. This tip from Microsoft shows you how to create a drop-down list.
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CBUG DISCUSSIONS |
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The Crystal Ball User Group (CBUG) is a Yahoo! online forum where Crystal Ball users can discuss issues and methods related to Crystal Ball software.
PLEASE NOTE: You have several message delivery options when you join, including whether or not to receive single or digest e-mails. You can also opt not to receive any e-mail and simply log onto the Web site every so often to view discussion. |
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Copyright (c) 2007 Decisioneering, Inc. "Decisioneering" and "Crystal Ball" are registered trademarks of Decisioneering, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Microsoft and Excel are registered trademarks and Vista is a trademark of Microsoft Corporation in the U.S. and other countries.
Yahoo! is a registered trademark of Yahoo! Inc.
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June 22, 2007
