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IN THIS ISSUE |
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WHAT'S NEW |
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New Look and Feel to the Crystal Ball Web Site
The Crystal Ball Web Site has been redesigned to reflect the recent integration with Oracle. The pages are now organized by industry and application, making it easier to find helpful predictive management resources. Applications and Industries include:
Changes and additions are constantly being made. The address remains the same www.crystalball.com.
2007 Oil and Gas Forum
The Crystal Ball Oil & Gas Forum will be held December 13th in Houston, TX at the Houston Marriott West Loop. The event will feature a full day of case studies, best practices and workshops led by Crystal Ball and risk modeling experts in the Oil & Gas field.
Attendees at this event will:
- Discover innovative applications for using Crystal Ball from the people who know it best--other users
- Learn the latest techniques for risk analysis, simulation and optimization
- Exchange solutions and network with professionals who have successfully used Crystal Ball
- Improve the communication of risk and how to get the most out of forecasting and analysis results.
> Speakers and Abstract
> Schedule
> Register Here
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 Upcoming Web Seminar
Modeling and Simulation for DFSS
Date: Tuesday, Nov. 27th, 2007
Time: 9:00 am Mountain Time (Denver)
Location: Your desk
Modeling and simulation has shown tremendous value during product development by validating product design fulfills customer requirements. Key design risks can be identified and mitigated early in the product lifecycle, when changes are the least expensive.
Join Mark Petrotta, Functional Architect, Systems Engineering at General Dynamics Land Systems, as he focuses on practical applications of modeling and simulation for DFSS projects.
During this one-hour Crystal Ball Web seminar, attendees will learn:
- Techniques for modeling Voice of the Customer;
- Methods for quantifying CTQ characteristics;
- Identifying the best design concept with simulations;
- Dealing with uncertainly using Monte Carlo simulation;
- Using sensitivity analysis to identify causes of product variation.
> Register to attend this Web seminar
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CRYSTAL BALL RESOURCES |
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Online Article:
Quantifying Financial Risk
By Michael Lionais, CMA
From CMA Management, August/September 2007 Issue
The federal government’s Accountability Act, combined with the Modern Comptrollership initiative, have necessitated a new approach to estimating costs for future expenditures. As CMA Michael Lionais explains, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada has implemented a very successful process to do just this.
> Click here to read the article.
WHITE PAPER
Pharmaceutical Product Design
Bir Gujral, Freeman Stanfield, Doug Rufino
DSM Pharmaceuticals Inc.
Source: 2007 Crystal Ball User Conference
Risk Analysis is one of the essentials of Process Analytical Technology (PAT) being adopted in the Pharmaceutical Industry
as per the new guidance of the FDA. Under PAT, the quality is designed into a Pharmaceutical product, rather than established
by testing of a finished batch. The traditional spreadsheet analysis of quality outcomes does not give any probability
information on quality. In PAT, the critical product quality variables are identified from the historic data.
Crystal Ball software
is run on critical parameters to build Monte Carlo simulation models. The simulation model provides probability data
for almost all possible outcomes by analyzing the statistics of simulations. The probability of quality in the final product can
be predicted with confidence.
> View the entire white paper
CB TIP:
How to use the Custom Distribution in Crystal Ball– The General Distribution (Tip #3 of 5)
Introduction
The Custom distribution in Crystal Ball is arguably the most versatile, but also one of the most difficult distributions to correctly use within Crystal Ball. In fact, using the Custom distribution, a Crystal Ball software user can construct five different kinds of distributions (see Table below).
Risk Analysis Tip |
Distribution |
Name used in Crystal Ball User Manual |
Tip 1 |
Discrete Uniform distribution* |
"Unweighted values" |
Tip 2 |
Discrete distribution |
"Weighted values" |
Tip 3 |
General distribution |
"Sloping continuous ranges" |
Tip 4 |
Histogram distribution |
"Continuous ranges" |
Tip 5 |
Cumulative Ascending distribution |
"Sloping continuous cumulative ranges" |
Each of these five distributions has a different use and application. The way that the Custom distribution “knows” which of the above five to make for you totally depends on the format of your input data ("date entry rules").
The goal of this Risk Analysis Tip Series is to make you aware of the five different distributions that you can construct using the Custom distribution and their various uses. The five Tips will also provide detailed instructions on how to format your data to construct the five different distributions with the Custom Distribution.
> View the Full Risk Tip (#3 of 5)
Share a comment, risk analysis tip or a new CB Tip with your fellow Crystal Ball users! Send your contribution to newsletter@crystalball.com.
> Previously published tips and techniques
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TRAINING SCHEDULE
Intro and Advanced Crystal Ball
USA and CANADA
Seattle, WA: Oct. 30-31
San Diego, CA: Nov. 6-7
Chicago, IL: Nov. 6-7
New York, NY: Nov. 6-7
Milwaukee, WI: Nov. 6-7
Boston, MA: Nov. 13-14
Phoenix, AZ: Nov. 13-14
Dallas, TX: Nov.
13-14
Houston, TX: Nov. 27-28
Montreal, QC: Nov. 28-29
Denver, CO: Nov. 28-29
Portland, OR: Nov. 27-28
Toronto, ON: Dec. 4-5
San Francisco, CA: Dec. 4-5
Raleigh, NC: Dec. 4-5
Albuquerque, NM: Dec. 4-5
Miami, FL: Dec. 11-12
Vancouver, BC: Dec. 11-12
Philadelphia, PA: Dec. 11-12
Washington, DC: Dec. 18-19
New York, NY: Dec. 18-19
San Diego, CA: Dec. 18-19
EUROPE
Visit the Web site for updates
LATIN AMERICA
Visit the Web site for updates
ASIA / AUSTRALIA
Visit the Web site for updates
Advanced Crystal Ball for Oil & Gas
Houston, TX: Dec. 18-19
Crystal Ball Applications for Six Sigma
San Diego, CA: Nov. 8
Toronto, ON: Dec. 6
Miami, FL: Dec. 13
Introduction to Real Options
Seattle, WA: Nov. 1
San Francisco, CA: Dec. 6
Spreadsheet Modeling Techniques for Business: Best Practices
Washington, DC: Dec. 20
Suggest a training
date or location
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3rd Annual European Lean, Six Sigma & Process Improvement Summit
October 30-31, 2007
Amsterdam, The Netherlands
INFORMS Annual Meeting 2007
November 4-7, 2007
Seattle, WA
SPE Annual Technical Conference and Exhibition
November 11-14, 2007
Anaheim, CA
Winter Simulation Conference 2007
December 9-12, 2007
Washington, DC
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If you have questions, comments, or reader feedback, please send them to us at newsletter@crystalball.com
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Tomorrow's Forecast is an online production of Decisioneering, Inc. Newsletters are e-mailed to subscribers near the end of the first and third weeks of the month.
This e-mail newsletter is sent only to those individuals who either:
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MONTE CARLO IN THE NEWS |
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Highline Wealth Management Achieves $500 Million in Assets Under Management
Source: PRNewswire, Sept. 19th, 2007
Highline Wealth Management announced it now has more than $500 million in assets under management. The firm, which has an average client relationship value of more than $8 million, has grown almost exclusively by word of mouth among the high net worth families, real estate developers and entrepreneurs it serves. Highline provides a fee-only, open architecture model that enables clients to access multiple custodians and leverages a variety of allocation models including Monte Carlo simulation to evaluate risk and create wealth preservation strategy.
Urjit R Patel: The Heat Is On
Source: Business Standard, October 16th, 2007
Targeting reduction of the stock of greenhouse gases is an efficient way to control the risk of catastrophic change in the long term. However this risk is full of many uncertainties. Using Monte Carlo simulation, certain aspects of this uncertainty are changed to a probability, making modeling and results more accurate.
An Oil & Gas Shangri-la in the Arctic?
Source: Energy Bulletin, October 10th, 2007
Because of the great potential for oil and gas industries in the Arctic, the USGS has undertaken a comprehensive assessment of the area in order to provide consistent and comparable geologically based estimates of the potential additions to world oil and gas reserves. Monte Carlo simulation was one methodology used during these studies.
Read about Monte Carlo simulation in a recent article or paper? Let us know! Send your citation to newsletter@crystalball.com. |
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MICROSOFT EXCEL & THE WEB |
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WEB SITES:
Excel Tips
http://exceltips.vitalnews.com/
This is the place to find easy-to-use, succinct answers to your questions about Microsoft Excel. The site contains over a thousand articles and tips, categorized across scores of topic areas. You can also subscribe to a weekly e-newsletter.
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CBUG DISCUSSIONS |
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The Crystal Ball User Group (CBUG) is a Yahoo! online forum where Crystal Ball users can discuss issues and methods related to Crystal Ball software.
PLEASE NOTE: You have several message delivery options when you join, including whether or not to receive single or digest e-mails. You can also opt not to receive any e-mail and simply log onto the Web site every so often to view discussion. |
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Copyright (c) 2007, Oracle Corporation. All Rights Reserved.
Oracle, JD Edwards, PeopleSoft, Hyperion and Siebel are registered trademarks of Oracle Corporation and/or its affiliates.
Yahoo! is a registered trademark of Yahoo! Inc.
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October 25, 2007
