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ONE-MINUTE
SPOTLIGHT |
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Provided courtesy
of Decisioneering, Inc., makers of the Crystal Ball®
line of risk analysis software. |
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How can I easily predict future values of my historical data?
CB Predictor is a "time-series" forecasting tool available as part of Crystal Ball Professional Edition or Premium Edition. It makes quick work of analyzing your historical data and extrapolating values into the future.
To use CB Predictor, just click on any cell in your historic data, and then start CB Predictor from the menu or toolbar.
CB Predictor’s Intelligent Input feature will automatically detect the bounds of your data, your header information, and the row/column orientation of your data.
CB Predictor provides eight standard time-series forecasting methods. The goal of each method is to identify the underlying trend or pattern of the data and separate it from the "noise".
This pattern is then projected into the future as the most likely values for the data. If you’re not sure which method to use, CB Predictor can automatically try them all and choose the one that best fits your data.
Special seasonal methods are available that handle cyclical or periodic data, e.g., a spike in toy sales during holidays.
If you have some data that you think might be tied to (dependent on)
other data,
CB Predictor offers several advanced regression techniques. Regression
can improve the quality of your forecasts when relationships exist between
data.
Next, preview your forecast with one click.
Before CB Predictor creates future values in your spreadsheet, you can preview the forecast graphically:
On the right side of the chart, you can see the forecast (in blue) for the Retail Sales data surrounded by a 90% confidence interval (in red) giving the most likely, worst, and best case scenarios.
You can also click through other data series or see how other forecasting methods compare to the "best" one CB Predictor chose for you.
CB Predictor pastes the forecasted results into your spreadsheet, extending the data and date columns as necessary. The added rows are shown in bold.
Since there is always some uncertainty when extrapolating historical data into the future, CB Predictor creates Crystal Ball assumptions (shown in green) for the future values. You can then run a Crystal Ball simulation to analyze how the uncertainty in these values affects other aspects of your spreadsheet model.
Our one minute is up...thank you for your time. For more information on CB Predictor or to download an evaluation copy, visit the CB Predictor product home page.
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