Tired of bad earnings and expense forecasts?

Want to know the probability of
achieving your plan?

With so many risks and uncertainties associated with production forecasts, drilling costs, reservoir properties, operating expenses, and oil / gas prices, it is extraordinarily difficult to forecast earnings and cash flow for even the simplest prospects.

Learn the preeminent tool for modeling the effects of uncertainty
in all aspects of your business plan: Crystal Ball from Decisioneering.

This two-day course will teach you how to model uncertainty and risk, identify key drivers, and then refine them using an advanced suite of professional modeling tools. The course shows how to evaluate individual prospects, and then how to combine them into a working portfolio optimized on your key business indicators.

This course is intended for Oil & Gas professionals involved in evaluating the economic potential of oil and gas wells, prospects, and portfolios. This audience includes asset team engineers and geoscientists charged with providing inputs and running corporate economic evaluations, as well as supervisors to mid-level management who want a hands-on understanding of modeling uncertainty associated with exploration and production operations.

Attendees should have a good working knowledge of Excel, however, experience with Crystal Ball is not a prerequisite, as beginning concepts and techniques are covered (or reviewed depending on the student's experience) in the first 1/2 day of the course.

By the end of this two-day course, you will have learned:

• The Basics of Monte Carlo Simulation using Crystal Ball
• Tornado Charting and Analysis for Discounted Cash Flow Analysis of a Drillable Prospect
• Conversion of Point Estimate Prospect Model to Stochastic Simulation Model Accounting for Uncertainties Including Dry Hole Risk, Production Uncertainties, Expense Risks, and Price Forecasting Uncertainties
• Incorporating Historical Drilling and Completion Costs and other Historical Data Into Simulation
• Correlated / Dependent Assumptions and their Importance to Simulation
• Value of Information Modeling: Shoot seismic or not?
• Monte Carlo Simulation and Analysis of Results, including the Use Of Sensitivity analysis as a Project Management Tool
• Time Series Forecasting
• Portfolio Optimization using Multiple Business Requirements and Constraints Including Markowitz Efficient Frontier and Sharpe's Ratio

Gain the skills necessary to make you a more confident, efficient, and
professional decision-maker.

Advanced preparation includes:

1. An introductory understanding of Excel
2. Competence with Windows operating systems (NT 4.0 or later).

Please click on the Order Online links below for current course fees. The course fee includes lunch and coffee breaks for both days, handouts, manuals, and CDs with example files. You must pay the course fee prior to attending the course.

> Click here for general course policies (includes refund and cancellation)

Register for a class today!

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Advanced Crystal Ball for Oil and Gas is a group live software training course worth sixteen CPE credit hours (a credit hour is 50 minutes of training per hour). Decisioneering, Inc. is registered with the National Association of State Boards of Accountancy (NASBA) as a sponsor of continuing professional education on the National Registry of CPE Sponsors.

Program Level: Advanced Crystal Ball for Oil and Gas - Overview

State boards of accountancy have final authority on the acceptance of individual courses for CPE credit. Complaints regarding registered sponsors may be addressed to the National Registry of CPE Sponsors, 150 Fourth Avenue North, Suite 700, Nashville, TN, 37219-2417. www.nasba.org.

> Click here for more information on our CPE Credits

 

Time: 8:30 a.m. to 4:30 p.m. (Actual start times vary by location. Please check your confirmation letter for actual start time) Lunch provided by Decisioneering.

Day 1: Basics of Monte Carlo Simulation Using Crystal Ball

Morning Session:

1. What is Monte Carlo Simulation, and How does it Differ from Traditional Analyses?
   
   
2. Converting Spreadsheet Models to Account for Uncertainty
   i) Defining Assumptions using Distributions
   ii) Fitting to Historical Data
   iii) Correlating Dependent Assumptions
   iv) Defining Forecasts and Using Them to Predict Outcomes
   
   
3. How to Define Parameters for Running Monte Carlo Simulation
   
   
4. Analysis of Monte Carlo Simulation Outcomes
   i) Sensitivity Analysis
   ii) Trend Charting
   iii) Overlay Plots

Afternoon Session:

1. Application of Crystal Ball to Variety of Financial / Business Models
   
   
2. Tornado Charting and Analysis for Discounted Cash Flow Analysis of a Drillable Prospect
   
   
3. Conversion of Point Estimate Prospect Model to Stochastic Simulation Model Accounting for Uncertainties Including:
   i) Dry Hole Risk
   ii) Production Uncertainties
   iii) Expense Risks
   iv) Price Forecasting Uncertainties

Day 2: Advanced O&G Modeling Using Crystal Ball

Morning Session

1. Incorporating Historical Drilling and Completion Costs and other Historical Data Into Simulation
   
   
2. Correlated / Dependent Assumptions and their Importance to O&G Simulation
   
   
3. Value of Information Modeling: Shoot seismic or not?
   
   
4. Monte Carlo Simulation and Analysis of Drilling Results, including the Use Of Sensitivity analysis as a Project Management Tool
   
   
5. Forecasting Oil Prices using Time Series Forecasting: Crystal Ball Predictor

Afternoon Session

1. Drilling / Prospect Portfolio Optimization using Multiple Business Requirements and Constraints: Optquest
   i) Markowitz Efficient Frontier
   ii) Sharpe's Ratio
   
   
2. Bootstrapping Analysis: How Good Are Your Models?
   
   
3. 2D Simulation: Isolating Difficult or Unknown Assumptions
   
   
4. Capstone Exercise: Bringing it All together

Steve Hoye has consulted and taught courses to Fortune 500 professionals and teams on risk management techniques with Monte Carlo simulation, time series forecasting, and optimization techniques using advanced computer software and models.

With 23 years of oil industry experience, and over eight years of experience building and using probabilistic models for forecasting financial results accounting for uncertainty, this honors-MBA trainer is currently co-authoring a book on Monte Carlo simulation for oil & gas to be published in 2004.

Comments from clients include:

"Excellent knowledge of concepts. Good examples...very knowledgeable. 5 out of 5!"
-- Hewlett Packard, Aquadilla, Puerto Rico

"Excellent instructor. Knowledge of product and fundamentals were exceptional - very approachable and personable. Perfect pace. Very knowledgeable. I would highly recommend Steve Hoye.
-- Encana, Calgary, Alberta, Canada

"Made the class interesting and fun." When asked: "What did you like best about the course?": "The instructor (Steve Hoye) - his teaching style. He was very knowledgeable, and expressed ideas so clearly. Well prepared, knowledgeable, helpful in answering questions".
--Southern California Edison, Rosemead, CA

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